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Month: November 2009

Has Brown let himself to be spooked by Cameron?

Has Brown let himself to be spooked by Cameron?

“…..It’s as if he thinks that, if only he can make one more titanic effort, the scales will suddenly fall from the public’s eyes and the Tories will stand revealed as the wicked, malevolent force he thinks they are, and Brown will be bathed in virtuous sunlight as the country’s great protector. Brown is entitled to think this. But it’s a fantasy. Smart politics ought to have a bigger and more supple vision than that in times like these…”– Martin…

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Is Labour coming out worse from this than the Tories?

Is Labour coming out worse from this than the Tories?

Telegraph How’s it going to affect the party political battle? My first reaction when I saw the front page of this morning’s Telegraph was, I guess, hardly unique – what was the political affiliation of the six who appear to form the next stage of the ongoing expenses saga? For until the election is over and the votes are counted we are going to be in a high-octane political atmosphere as the Tories sense victory and Labour tries to hold…

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Do these numbers smash the Number 10 fantasy?

Do these numbers smash the Number 10 fantasy?

UKPollingReport “Government’s always recover” – eh? There is a notion which seems to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many pundits and Labour figures that there is some immutable law of polling that says that Governments always recover by election day. This is summed up by the following from Martin Bright in the Spectator tomorrow:- He notes that in Downing Street “…a rather desperate numbers game is being played. It starts with an assumption that the Labour vote has…

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What’ll the speech do to the election campaign?

What’ll the speech do to the election campaign?

Or is this just an irrelevance? So there we have it. The hardy annual ritual of the Queen’s Speech when David Cameron and Gordon Brown have to walk alongside each other as they progress from the House of Commons to the House of Lords. There was a time when this was a much bigger news event than it is today because it was the event that saw the revelation of the legislative programme. Mr. Brown has downgraded it a touch…

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Who is getting on the Green party bus?

Who is getting on the Green party bus?

Are the LDs most vulnerable? There is a widespread assumption that the party most likely to suffer if the Greens increase their general election vote share will be the Lib Dems. The latest ComRes poll had them on a chunky 6%. On the face of it they seem to be targeting the same groups but is it actually the case that Nick Clegg’s party has most to fear? This is the second part of some analysis I’ve been doing on…

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The City of London: November 26th 2009 at 18.30

The City of London: November 26th 2009 at 18.30

Wikimedia Commons Join the informal PB gathering Thanks to the initiative of Fat Steve there’ll be an informal PB get-together in the City, near Liverpool Street station, on Thursday November 26th. Unlike previous events this will be highly informal – a sort of “after-work drinks” for London-based PBers or those who can get there easily. Steve has found a location in a pub where it’s hoped that we can have our own area and already sixteen people have signed up….

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Should Rod Liddle avoid political predicting?

Should Rod Liddle avoid political predicting?

Spectator How can he come up with such a distortion? I’ve clipped the above Rod Liddle piece from the Spectator site.(HatTip – The Screaming Eagles) In it he argues that we might be leading to a 1992-type result. Who knows? But the evidence he presents in support of his case does not match the facts. He writes that in the weeks leading up to the Glasgow NE by election “the average of a bunch of opinion polls showed the Tory…

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