“….Some Labour people may think I’m sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory…” Jackie Ashley’s Guardian column today – HatTip ConHome Mike Smithson
Wikimedia Commons Peter the Punter looks at the 2012 White House market If there is anybody out there who does not yet know about Mike Smithson’s prediction that Barack Obama, then a 50/1 outsider, would win the US Presidency three years later, they had better acknowledge it now. Trying to follow that astonishing piece of tipping is surely sticking one’s neck out but PB is not for the fainthearted: so when California Girl, the latest recruit to my long list…
This is the Telegraph writer, Gerald Warner, who has made this amazing prediction on the Julia Kirkbride and Elizabeth Truss re-selection issues. He wrote: “Both Truss and Kirkbride, in their respective constituencies, have slightly less promising prospects than Osama bin Laden in the Tel-Aviv mayoral race. So it seems almost too much to hope that they will succeed in being selected, thus reducing Dave’s putative majority by two seats.” Eh? You must be bonkers. Here’s a tip Mr Warner. Before…
Would his plan have gone through if his ratings were better? The key impact that opinion polls have is not in predicting the general election but in setting the whole back-cloth for the way current politics is conducted. So is this how we should explain the lack of support for Mr. Brown’s tax plan from other leading countries at yesterday’s meeting of G20 finance minister? If Brown looked set to continue in office for the next five years then his…
Wikimedia Commons What’ll be the messages that chime with the voters? While we wait to see if the Sunday papers have any polls or sensational developments I thought it might be useful to ponder on what the coming campaign is going to look like. What are the messages the parties will try to get over and what is going to resonate with voters. This will be the first election since 1997 1987 when the Tories are likely to start the…
Are local parties threatening Cameron’s remodelling? In South West Norfolk, the selected Tory candidate faces deselection, the stated reason being the non-disclosure of an affair from some years back; in Bromsgrove, the sitting Tory MP has changed her mind about standing down at the election and now wishes to contest the seat. Apart from both being political fallout from the Expenses Scandal, the two stories could damage the Tory party, especially when taken together, and both concern events around local…
Would he have visited today if there was any doubt? One of my biggest betting errors of 2008 was to change my initial view of the Glenrothes by-election. My first thought was that Gordon Brown and Sarah would not have joined the campaign if those running the Labour operation had not advised that victory was in the bag. Straightforward thinking and I bet accordingly. Then, just three days before the vote, I got a call from a Scottish political contact…
CON 38%(-2) LAB 24%(+1) LD 20%(nc) UKIP 6% (+1) BNP 4% (+1) GRN 3% (nc) SNP/PC 4% (-1) And the Tories slip into the 30s? The most striking characteristics of this afternoon’s exclusive new poll by Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com are the increases in the shares for UKIP and the BNP with the Tories slipping down to 38%. Like yesterday’s YouGov poll the total proportion of respondents opting for other parties has seen an increase with Angus Reid reporting…