How many losses do we expect them to suffer?

At the General Election on May 5th 2005 Labour won 40 of the 59 seats north of the border on just 38.9% of the vote. No wonder that Blair “forgot” about his 1997 manifesto commitment on electoral reform.

Since the election they lost Dunfermline to the Lib Dems in 2006 and Glasgow East to the SNP in 2008. This was partly balanced by the “gain” overnight of the Speaker’s seat.

So how are things going to look for Brown’s party after the general election. How many Scottish seats will be lost?

PaddyPower has got a new market up on this very issue. The opening prices for changes on the current total of 39 seats are:-

6/1 None or a Gain in Seats
9/2 1 – 3 Losses
6/4 4 – 6 Losses
7/4 7 – 9 Losses
9/2 10 or more Losses

Where’s the value there? My view is that electoral geography will continue to pay dividends and their losses won’t be that great. The 4 – 6 segment looks best.

Mike Smithson