Does Gord “know” that his man will win Glasgow NE?
Would he have visited today if there was any doubt?
One of my biggest betting errors of 2008 was to change my initial view of the Glenrothes by-election. My first thought was that Gordon Brown and Sarah would not have joined the campaign if those running the Labour operation had not advised that victory was in the bag.
Straightforward thinking and I bet accordingly. Then, just three days before the vote, I got a call from a Scottish political contact who told me of the massive SNP effort that had been made in the final weekend. I switched my position and we all know what happened.
So today’s news that Gordon has felt confident enough to visit Glasgow NE is very telling. A massive effort has gone into voter registration and getting postal votes and Labour, surely, are going to win.
On top of that Labour has become adept at blaming the SNP-led Scottish government for lots of problems in the area which adds a real potency to their message.
So that’s where my money has gone today and I’ve vowed to remain firm next week.
Glasgow North East betting
Ladbrokes 8/15 Labour: 11/8 SNP: 33/1 John Smeaton: 100/1 bar
Betfair 0.67/1 Labour: 1.45 SNP: 150/1 bar