Will the debate NO backers win their bets? A fair bit of political news in the Sundays but the one most affecting the betting markets is the report by Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph about the inter-leader talks over the formats for the proposed general election TV debates. There’s been a fair bit of betting not only on whether these will take place but who will be the chair and even which of the leaders, according to post-debate polling,…
CON 40%(nc) LAB 28%(nc) LD 19%(nc) But voters would “think better of Brown if he stood down“ The first of what are likely to be two polls tonight is just out – ComRes for the Independent on Sunday – has just been published and shpws no change whatsoever compared with the firm’s last survey just a fortnight ago. That was taken between the Labour and Tory conferences. I’m not convinced by the John Rentoul’s suggestion that this is a post…
Will the chair of the Bedford primary win his own? As many of you will know, this afternoon the Tories in Bracknell will select a candidate to replace Andrew MacKay, and given the majority exceeded 12,000 votes in 2005 I think it is fair to say they are probably choosing the next MP. This is one of five such contests taking place this weekend using what’s described as An Open Primary (strictly speaking a caucus) whereby people who live in…
Could the expansion programme be put on the back-burner? One of the big announcements at last week’s Manchester conference was a plan by an incoming Tory government to drastically increase the number of directly elected mayors with wide executive powers. Currently there are just twelve on them and the majority of referenda on having them have produced no votes. I wonder whether one consequence of today’s Bedford result might be to put the expansion programme on hold – certainly not…
Ipsos-Mori
Labour in fifth place Lots of rumours about the Bedford result and it does look like a run-off for second places. For comparison purposes this was one estimate of the aggregate split when voting for the unitary authority took place in June. Con – 18060 – 35.66% – All wards contested LD – 12851 – 25.37% – All wards Lab – 9320 – 18.40% – All wards Ind – 7767 – 15.34% – 13 wards UKIP – 1227 – 2.42%…
Guardian Could he move to Number 10 AND keep his peerage? For months now it has been blindingly obvious to me, at least, that the Labour party would fare better if the business secretary with a whole string of other titles, Lord Mandelson, became Brown’s successor. He’s light years ahead of the internal competition in terms of his sheer political abilities and communication skills that with him in charge then his party would do better whatever side of the general…
How far can party HQs control local parties? If, as the betting odds seem to have suggested, the Tories have come second in today’s Bedford mayoral by election then one of the questions might be the role of the party HQ. For in many ways the role of London has been like that within Labour over all-women short-lists. For the effect is the same – to take away from local party members the power to choose who should represent them….