CON 43 (+7) LAB 26 (-2)(+2) LD 19 (-6) Is the conference effect working its way out of the system? The first of three polls that are expected out in the next 12 hours has been published by Ipsos-Mori and shows a sharp change on their last survey taken just after the Lib Dem conference. That last poll had Labour in third place. The big contrast though is with the recent YouGov and ComRes polls which both showed a narrowing…
Politics Home Mega Marginals poll Will the LDs do better than the seat calculators? Reflecting on last week’s Bedford election, which was bigger in terms of votes cast than all but two of the by elections in this parliament, the readiness of many Labour voters to ditch their allegiance and vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories was a key factor. This is a reminder of how potent this is likely to be at the general election…
What do we think of HenryG’s tip? The overnight thread has been dominated by a comment by the usually well-informed HenryG that could have an important bearing on the Labour leadership. He wrote simply: “..I’m hearing that Mandelson could be about to shift support away from Brown into David Miliband’s direction. Not sure how that is going to manifest, or when or if it’s just whispers that do the rounds.“ Make of this what you will. Henry has set it…
What if he gets elected as the PLP chairman? After a day at Westminster dominated by the clashes involving Ed Balls over his appointment of the children’s commissioner a lot of attention is being focussed on the veteran MP, Barry Sheerman. At the weekend it was reported that he’s thinking of being a stalking horse in next month’s election for the chairmanship of the parliamentary Labour party so MPs can have a mean of showing their feelings about the leadership….
SportingIndex Brown’s party move up six notches in ten days In the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference a week and a half ago the commons seat spreads from SportingIndex moved to their lowest ever level of 197 – 202 seats. Following there polls in the past week having Labour in the 28 – 30% range there has been something of a re-evaluation and the numbers have moved upwards. The other main spread market that makes intermittent appearances, Extrabet, has…
1929 Conservative poster – Wikimedia Commons Could this still have potency – 80 years on? While idly surfing the net over the weekend I came across this wonderful poster from the 1929 general election which seemed to resonate with the current political mood. For Labour seems most vulnerable when the Daily Mail, and it is usually the Daily Mail, finds some new law or regulation that could have consequences way beyond the wrong that it was trying to deal with….
Wikimedia Commons Are the GOP home and hosed in the Old Dominion? One thing America is never short of is elections, and so a year after winning the White House, the Democrats will have their first major test at the ballot box with the “off-year” races for Governor of New Jersey (to be examined next week) and Virginia, on Tuesday 3rd November. Virginia is now a key “purple state” in which the Democrats have done well at recent electoral cycles,…
How far will Sarah be pushed into the campaign? Politicians with public relations difficulties have a tendency to play the family card and Gordon Brown has proven no exception to that rule. From her first notable ‘solo’ appearance in the Glenrothes by-election to her warm-up act at two party conferences, Sarah Brown’s profile in party activities has increased while her husband’s ratings have languished. That raises the questions of what role she’ll play when the election’s called and what impact…