BBC Does the Osborne gamble dominate everything? If the polls have got this right then within the next seven months George Osborne will be the chancellor at a time when circumstances dictate hard unpopular action. The question for the Tories here in Manchester this week was whether to try to skip over the details and talk in generalities or else or to start to spell out how a Tory government would handle things. Along with many I thought that they’s…
I’m tied up with a fringe event at the Tory conference and won’t be posting until the morning. Please use this thread to carry on the conversation. The picture is of a street sign just round the corner from my hotel. Clearly the good burgers of this city have been waiting a long time for the Tories to hold their annual gathering in Manchester. Mike Smithson
CON 43% (+2) LAB 29% (+1) LD 17%(-1) Will this easy the Tory jitters? So there we are – the first full poll after George Osborne’s speech yesterday. All the fieldwork would have taken place after the speech. Although these movements are within the margin of error Tory strategists will be breathing a sign of relief that the first reaction to the gamble seems positive. I think that we are seeing another effect – the Labour vote is hardening at…
And what about the plan to give them more powers? One announcement at the Tory conference has the side effect of creating more elections which are likely to lead to more betting markets during a period when these will be quite scarce. A big betting occasion will be twelve referenda, all taking place on the same day, in leading English cities on whether to have an elected mayor or not. The idea of a “big bang” like this seems designed…
Will this muddy the waters in the electoral reform debate? It’s surprising that with electoral reform being pushed up the election agenda by Labour, the comments by Tory chairman, Eric Pickles, in his conference speech don’t seemed to have attracted much attention. For under the banner of the Lib Dem “fair votes” rhetoric Pickles is pressing for the Tory version of electors reform which involves cutting the numbers of seats and having fresh boundary reviews after each general election. Acknowledging…
A PB Essay by Martha Richler The Bullingdon photo just won’t go away. It pesters Cameron like a fly – the more he swats at it, the more persistent it gets. Cameron could learn a thing or two from Clinton, who handled his Oxford days deftly from the start. In the same year as the Bullingdon photo,1992, Clinton was elected President of the United States. Unemployment in America was up to ten million – and Clinton knew how vital it…
CON 41% (+1) LAB 28% (+1) LD 18%(-2) The latest figures, based on polling that mostly took place last night, are above. Tomorrow’s tracker will be the first indication of reaction to Osbornes plans and his pension gamble. The moves today are not very big – all within the margin of error for all parties. The Lib Dem share seemed to be the one that’s moving about most and there’s no real explanation. Mike Smithson
But could “events” put a smile back on their faces? In a radio interview being reported today, the boss of pollster, ComRes, Andrew Hawkins is suggesting that the election is in the bag the for the Tories. He said: “If Gordon Brown stays in post until the General Election then despite the protest that this will elicit from Tories then yes it is a done deal… “On the analysis we’ve done going back over theg last 4 years worth of…