CON 39 (-1) LAB 25 (+7) LD 19 (+1) A new poll tonight from Ipsos-MORI has Labour rising above the floor of 18% which was recorded earlier in the month and back into the mid 20s. MORI has a very tight turnout filter and only includes the “100% certains” in its headline figures. This tends to produce quite a lot of turbulence. Another MORI feature is that it weights by whether people work in the public sector or not because…
One of the consequences of Labour’s precarious financial position is that it is much more vulnerable to pressure from union funders who don’t like its policies. According to the BBC public service union, Unison, has said that “it will no longer give financial support to MPs that do not support its values.” The General Secretary Dave Prentis told union members it would not give any more “blank cheques” to the party and Labour MPs and candidates at the next election…
I’ve just got back from a lunch in London and we need a new thread simply because the last one was getting too long. My plan is to post something new later.
How challenging is the voting system for the favourite? Next Tuesday we’ll know who Michael Martin’s replacement is going to be and we’ll be looking forward to the first big occasion for the new office holder at PMQs the following day. After spending a couple hours watching the hustings yesterday this is proving to be an absorbing contest and one where I’ve got too much money committed in bets. The critical element is the voting system and the fact that…
AMENDED CON 39 (-1) LAB 27(+5) LD 18 (-7) What a difference not being an election campaign makes Last time there was an ICM Westminster poll it was towards the end of the Euro election campaign when the broadcasting rules meant that all the parties, apart from Labour, were getting were getting much more coverage than they normally do. The result then was a big boost for the other parties particularly the Lib Dems who saw themselves ahead of Labour…
Who came out best from the first hustings? This afternoon’s hustings for the 10 MPs seeking to take over from Michael Martin a week today was both an entertaining event and very instructive for all those interested in the political process. Each of them made good cases and my sense overall is that this could be a lot closer then we thought. My ratings:- Margaret Beckett (Lab) Came over reasonably well, dealt effectively with the issue of her being a…
Sky News April 12 2009 Surely there’s no truth in the reports that he’s back? James Forsyth at the Spectator Coffee House blog is running a report that there are unconfirmed reports that the disgraced Number 10 spin doctor and former right hand man to the PM, Sean Damien McBride, is “actively working for Labour again”. I simply don’t believe it. For given everything associated with McBride’s exit in April and all the promises last Monday that Brown had turned…
Could my 200/1 bet come good? He’s everywhere and seems to be involved in everything and there’s little doubt that the big winner of the Brown leadership wobble was Peter Mandelson. (To save pressure on the server I won’t itemise his full titles!) It was his calm intervention, of course, in the hours after James Purnell resigned that calmed Labour down and controlled the nature of the crisis. Quite what he said (and promised?) to the key players late on…