CON 39 (-1) LAB 27(+5) LD 18 (-7)
What a difference not being an election campaign makes
Last time there was an ICM Westminster poll it was towards the end of the Euro election campaign when the broadcasting rules meant that all the parties, apart from Labour, were getting were getting much more coverage than they normally do.
The result then was a big boost for the other parties particularly the Lib Dems who saw themselves ahead of Labour – which proved to be quite a good prediction for the June 4th local elections.
Now we are back to a normal non-election period and the polls move back although others continue to score well.
Whatever this survey is going to give real heart to Labour after such a difficult period. They are still in the 20s – but not the low 20s while the Tories did not break the magical 40 barrier.
A lot of polling, as I’ve observed before, is driven by who has been most in the news – and boy how Labour has been in the news in the past week to the expense of virtually everybody else.
One feature from the poll is that most respondents expect to see a Tory majority government after the next election. Just 9% think Labour will win against 54% who think the Tories will take power. A total of 34% said they expected a hung parliament.