What expectations do we have of tonight’s meeting?
At 6pm Gordon Brown is due to attend the much-trailed meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party – the event , it’s been suggested, which could be highly dangerous for the PM.
There’s been all the talk of the email rebellion but are there any expectations that something could happen.
The real problem for disgruntled Labour MPs is that Brown and Mandelson seem to hold all the aces – if they get too strong in their demands for a ballot or a resignation then the PM could pop down to the palace and ask the Queen to call a general election.
This is the line has been playing strongly over the weekend and it’s quite a hard one for the plotters to swallow. My only thought is that if they are intent on change they could call Brown’s bluff by saying that they would not support his government if Cameron put down a confidence motion.
But would they dare go as far as that? We’ve already had reports of the fearsome Number 10 machine approaching local constituency parties of dissident MPs.
My guess is that this will all end in the next few months with Brown having to step on health grounds or something like that. There’s a long tradition of troubled PMs leaving office in this manner.