Can we expect the same Lib Dem squeeze? Having been watching the BBC Parliament re-run of the 1979 general election results programme on and off since 9am I’ve been trying to think of the lessons that might help us to predict the next general election – almost certainly in 2010. The common themes are very marked. A possibility of the return of the Tory government; a Labour party that had some massive challenges on the economy to face and a…
Best political betting prices What if Boris doesn’t stand? Without wanting to give any credence to the stories of a Boris v Dave rivalry, with Number 10 as the ultimate prize, this past week was not the first time that there have been rumblings that Boris Johnson might not want to spend 8 years running City Hall. You can never tell, especially with his public persona, whether the faux-modesty and claims of no higher ambition are to be taken seriously….
Will you stay with it for the WHOLE 15 hours? The BBC Parliament Channel has developed a splendid tradition of re-showing a full general election results programme from the past on Bank Holiday Mondays. You get it as though it was live as it happens and it lasts a very long time. For political anoraks these re-showings are quite an occasion and can sometimes be exciting even though, of course, we know the outcome. You also get insights which very…
Wikimedia Creative Commons License Three rounds of voting down, two to go in India America may claim to be the world’s greatest democracy, but India is unchallenged as the world’s biggest – and countries that at first seem politically complex, such as Israel, Italy, or Switzerland, pale into elegant simplicity when compared to the behemoth that is Indian politics (the US by contrast seems almost laughably straightforward). The sheer numbers involved in the Indian election are simply mind-boggling. Just two…
Is John Curtice right about what moves the polls The phrase “It’s the economy stupid” has been quoted time and time again since being first used by the Bill Clinton campaign in 1992 that it’s almost accepted as gospel by many who observe and comment on the political process. Indeed the great hope that Gordon Brown and Labour are clinging onto is that by the time that the general election finally happens then the economy will have got past the…
Five deputy contenders 2007 How is it that so few have really made it? About half of the parliamentary Labour party won election to the House of Commons in the 1990s. A few of those who gained their seat at the 1992 or 1997 elections, or one of the several by-election wins during those parliaments, have since left for one reason or another but many are still there. After ten to twenty years in the House, they ought to be…
So far no news of polls With only five weeks to the Euro/Local elections I was expecting news of at least one poll – but that does not seem to have happened. I do know that members of the YouGov polling panel have been surveyed but I’ve no idea whether that’s going to be published or not. Clearly the big thing we have to look forward to is the Sunday paper reaction to what’s been an exceptional week. Keeping posting…
Guardian Online March 26 2006 Guardian Online May 2 2009 What a difference three years makes? There’s already been a fair bit of discussion on Polly Toynbee’s Saturday column and thanks to Mirthios on the previous thread for digging out the 2006 rendering. What a contrast? Both are worth reading in some detail. Perhaps the most powerful article this weekend is from Nick Cohen in the latest Standpoint under the heading “‘Fear and Filth at Brown’s Number 10”. This left…