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CON 40(-5) LAB 21(-5) LD 18 (nc)

Look how opinion has changed in the last 18 days?

The fieldwork for the Indy on Sunday’s poll took place on Wednesday and Thursday and the first findings (non-voting related) from the poll were, I believe, released on the Daily Politics programme yesterday. The comparisons are with the last voting intention poll from the firm where the fieldwork finished on April 26th.

Again, like with the non-registered BPIX, we see a huge increase in support for others. This is something that generally happens to the polls every five years at EU election time though in the current environment it might be more significant. A plague on all your houses.

Unlike the numbers from the pollster that doesn’t answer questions, BPIX, the Lib Dem share has remained stable and must provide some comfort for Nick Clegg’s party. The only pollster I trust for the Lib Dems at this stage before an election is ICM – who ask what amounts to a constituency-based voting intention question.

Cameron’s Tories will be pleased to be maintaining the same lead over Labour – which in general election terms is probably the key figure.

No one can doubt that with number like this that Labour is in dire dire trouble. The party’s performance is far worse than that experienced by John Major in the year before the 1997 landslide. My view is that even if they don’t replace him they should keep Brown off the telly. Every appearance seems to put the party back.

UPDATE: Another finding from the poll is that when asked whether “David Cameron has dealt with the issue of MPs’ expenses better than Gordon Brown” it was 59% agree and 31% disagree. Interestingly more than half of those who voted Labour in 2005 agreed to 39% who disagreed.

SECOND UPDATE: This is from Andrew Hawkins – CEO of ComRes:-
*The Conservatives lead Labour among all regions and social groups – including Scotland.

*88% of people who voted Conservative in 2005 will vote Conservative now. 58% of people who voted Labour in 2005 say that they will vote Labour now. 69% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will now vote Lib Dem. (18% of people who voted Labour in 2005 will now vote for a minor party).

*15% of Labour voters and 11% of Lib Dem voters in 2005 are Tory voters now

*Only 37% of Labour identifiers are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 45% of LDs and 64% of Conservative identifiers.

Next week I’m expecting, MORI and ICM for which the fieldwork, I believe, is taking place this weekend.

Mike Smithson