Punters continue to bet against Brown/Labour The latest version of the PB Index, which tries to extrapolate current betting prices into a general election outcome, has a projected Conservative majority four seats higher than when we last looked at this five days ago. The index is now pointing to an overall majority for the Tories of 62 seats – which is the highest it has ever been. The calculation is done by taking the seat ranges on the two spread…
Can they be won back by the election? Tucked away in the detailed data of the latest ComRes poll is one scary statistic for Brown Central. A total of 240 of those surveyed said they had voted for the party that was then led by Tony Blair in 2005 – Yet over the weekend when the fieldwork was taking place only half of them, precisely 120, told the pollster that they planned to do so next time. This is the…
What are we to make of Reid getting involved again? Last Wednesday on budget day a power Labour voice from the past was wheeled out to argue the government’s case in interview after interview. He was powerful, he was lucid and most of all he was persuasive in a way that not one of the current crop Labour front-benchers can manage. Although he might have a bit of back history and is planning to leave the commons at the election…
CON 45(+5) LAB 26(-2) LD 17(-1) So another survey with no respite for Brown? Since last week’s budget the only pollster we’ve had voting intention numbers from has been YouGov – although we have had two surveys so it’s good that tonight another poll is published. The survey from ComRes for the Independent has shares very much in the same area. The comparisons are on the last ComRes poll at the end of March and an enormous amount has happened…
Sporting Index Spread Markets The buy price for the Tories on Sporting Index has hit the 360 mark for the first time as punters pile onto the Tories. I was hoping for the othe main market, Extrabet, to put out revised numbers today but, alas, nothing.
CONSERVATIVES 45% (+2) LABOUR 33% (-4) LIB DEMS 16% (+3) YouGov: London moves further to the Tories A new YouGov poll on voting intentions in London is out in tonight’s Evening Standard. The comparisons above are with the last such poll which was published in mid-January. Then it appeared that the swing to Cameron’s party was less than in the rest of the country. That trend is still there though things have got much worse for Labour nationally. Today’s poll…
SEE IMPORTANT UPDATE BELOW Did Lord West actually place a SELL Labour spread bet? There were two initial mysteries over the Sunday Times report that one of Gordon Brown’s ministers had bet against the party in mid-2007 – just about the time that the next PM entered Downing Street. Who was it and how on earth could he get such massive odds on Labour not winning? For the quoted price of 66/1 that the papers said that the man, now…
BBC News ANC misses 2/3rds, DA wins W Cape, COPE disappointing So, for the first time during the post-apartheid era, the ANC had to pull out all the stops during an election campaign, the emergence of the new COPE party galvanising its efforts, and in the event, its vote share at 65.9% was only four points down on 2004. However the ANC will not have a constitution-changing two-thirds majority in the new National Assembly, with its final tally of 264…