Polling update

The first full post-budget voting intention survey is not likely before Friday at the earliest – and I would expect it to be from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph. ComRes should be due at the weekend and we might also see one other survey.

Meanwhile it’s now been confirmed that the Sunday Telegraph’s poll by the ICM group company Marketing Sciences was carried out in precisely the same manner as other ICM voting intention polls.

The wording of the questions was the same, the target past vote weightings were the same and so was the “certainty to vote” calculation. So for the record I’m going to regard it as an ICM poll.

This doesn’t explain the disparity with the Guardian’s ICM survey that was published on Monday night. This has these shares CON 40 (-3) LAB 30 (+4) LD 19 (-2) compared with the earlier poll. The changes in the Tory and Lib Dem shares were in line with the margin of error. The Labour move wasn’t – so we’ll have to put it down to sample error.

I’ve now got the detailed data and an interesting feature is how Labour supporters split when asked “If Labour did change leader which of these candidates do you think would make the best leader?” (The figures in brackets are the latest best betting prices)

25% Jack Straw (14/1)
20% David Miliband (7/1)
10% Alan Johnson (7/1)
8% Ed Miliband (10/1)
4% Harriet Harman (3/1)
2% Ed Balls (14/1)
2% James Purnell (8/1)

The balance of the responses were “none” or “don’t know”. Interestingly Harriet did better amongst Tory supporters with 7% saying they would prefer her.

Link to betting prices here