Some numbers behind the headline figures The chart is taken from the detailed data in today’s Populus Poll for the Times and shows current voting intentions linked to what respondents said they did at the 2005 General Election. It focuses solely on those who voted last time – a segment that, surely, must be more likely to vote at the next general election than those, who for whatever reason, were non-voters. The Tories are retaining 97% of their 2005 vote…
UKPollingReport Could the tide turn yet again? One of the lessons that we have learned in the past two years is that the most dangerous assumption you can make is that things will go on as they are. After what, with the benefit of hindsight, was a temporary blip in late November and December all the polls have turned and all are suggesting that Gordon Brown will lead Labour to defeat at the general election – now a maximum of…
CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 28% (-5) LIB DEMS 18% (+3) ..and the LDs get a 3 point boost The Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times will be published officially in a few minutes but I’ve just been given the tip off about the numbers from a normally reliable source. [The figures have now been confirmed – see the Times story here] So Populus becomes the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s – further evidence that the Brown…
Has he let Cameron in with an opening? One of the features of depression-hit recession-hit Britain is that anybody who is thought to be getting away with it financially, particularly if it’s with taxpayer’s money, is vulnerable to attack. Jacqui Smith and her housing allowance was in the firing line yesterday and that story continues to rumble today. Now the focus is on the bank bosses – especially the bonuses at RBS where billions of pounds of taxpayers money has…
Populus September 2008 What should we conclude from these numbers? The above poll questions on voter motivations are ones that are often included in the parties’ own private surveys but you don’t often see them in published polls. As far as I can see the last time the findings appeared was in the September 2008 Populus poll for the Times and my understanding is that more up-to-date private research suggests that the broad picture has not changed much. The big…
Has Johnson found the way to deal with Dave? Gordon Brown has many qualities but one that is never ascribed to him is being “a good listener”. so I wonder what he’ll make of his health secretary’s comments during the weekend on the way Labour should deal with the Tory leader. For ever since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative in December 2005 the party has floundered as its tried to work out a way of dealing with…
Wikipedia International leaders to keep an eye on as the year unfolds As all fans of flat or National Hunt racing will know, the “Ten To Follow” is an integral part of the beginning of any season. A selection of horses that are worth keeping an eye on over the new season and that are thought likely to progress is presented for the perusal of the reader. Closer to home, the Politicalbetting Ten To Follow is run by Peter the…
Or does she have nothing to lose by staying on? The newspapers have broken a story that Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, has been claiming £500 allowances for living at a house belonging to her sister. The Mail on Sunday claims that she has received £116,000 in allowances whilst lodging at her sister’s house. This is in addition to the taxpayer-funded security, which the paper estimates as costing around £200,000 per annum. The Home Secretary’s Special Advisor claims that this…