Can he do as well as last year?

(After Roger’s brilliant performance forecasting the 2008 Oscars I’ve asked him to write an article for this year – this might provide good material for betting although the prices don’t look very good – MS)

2009 Oscars. I’m going to give the nominations in the important categories followed by my tips for the winners. I should remind anyone thinking of having a flutter that I recently tipped Barclays at £5 a share and said of Mike’s 50/1 tip on Obama – ‘don’t touch it with a bargepole’.

Best Film. ‘The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button’, ‘Frost/Nixon’, ‘Milk’, ‘The Reader’, ‘Slumdog Millionaire’.

Between the brilliantly crafted but less than engaging ‘Button’ and the entertaining but flawed ‘Slumdog’. A difficult choice but I’d just give it to ‘Slumdog’. Betting best price – 1/6

Best Director. ‘Slumdog Millionaire’, ‘The Reader’, ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, ‘Frost/Nixon’, ‘Milk’.

Again likely to be between ex-commercials director David Fincher for ‘Button’ and Danny Boyle from Bolton for ‘Slumdog’. I don’t like to separate ‘Best Film’ from ‘Best Director’ so despite the directorial craft in ‘Button’ I think it’ll go to Boyle. Best director betting Boyle 1/7

Best Actor. Richard Jenkins, Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke.

Another difficult choice, this time between Mickey Rourke in ‘The Wrestler’ and Sean Penn in ‘Milk’. For a once in a lifetime performance I’d give it to Rourke. Best actor betting Rourke 4/7

Best Actress. Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet.

One of the strongest fields for a while. For me it’s between Streep (‘Doubt’) and Winslet (‘The Reader’). Both very good but for her completely uninhibited performance I’d give it to Winslet. Best actress betting Winslet 4/7

Best Supporting Actor. Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon.

Stand out winner Heath Ledger for ‘Dark Knight’ (phew!). Betting prices Heath Ledger 1/20

Best supporting Actress. Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji Henson, Marisa Tomei.

An impressive five minutes from Viola Davis but surely not enough screen time for an Oscar? …..Which leaves the only serious alternative, Penelope Cruz. Betting Cruz 3/5

Best Animation. Bolt, Kung Fu Panda, Wall-E.

‘Wall-E’. Put your house on it!

Best Foreign Film. ‘The Baader Meinhof Complex’ – Germany, ‘The Class’ – France, ‘Departures’ – Japan, ‘Revanche’ – Austria, ‘Waltz with Bashir’ – Israel.

For its originality I’d give it to ‘Waltz with Bashir’. It’s nice to see Israel exporting something that doesn’t come with a detonator.

Best Cinematography. ‘Changeling’, ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘The Reader’, ‘Slumdog Millionaire’.

For me the stand out cinematographers were Claudio Miranda for ‘Button’ and Wally Pfister for Dark Knight. I’d give it to Miranda for the beautifully photographed ‘Button’ .

Best Art Direction. ‘Changeling’, ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘The Dutchess’, ‘Revolutionary Road’.

All good but it’s got to be ‘Button’ which was flawless.

Best Original Score. ‘The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button’, ‘Defiance’, ‘Milk’, ‘Slumdog Millionaire’, ‘Wall-E’.

Probably between ‘Slumdog’ and ‘Wall-E’ but I’d go for ‘Slumdog’

Best Visual Effects. ‘The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘Iron Man’.

A toss-up between ‘Dark Knight’ and ‘Button’ . Perhaps ‘Dark Knight’ by a whisker.

Best Editing. ‘Slumdog Millionaire’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, ‘Frost/Nixon’, ‘Milk’.

Oscar juries like snappy cuts so Chris Dickens for ‘Slumdog’.

Best Documentary.

The seriously weird ‘Man on Wire’ should get it.

Best Make-Up.

Greg Cannom for ‘Button’. To age Brad Pitt from 80 years old to 8 months with all the years in-between takes some making-up!

Best Adapted Screenplay.

It’ll probably go to ‘Slumdog’ but David Hare for the ‘Reader’ has an outside chance.

Best Costume Design.

‘Button’ again.

NB. A particularly difficult year with some of my favourites not even nominated. ‘EdP’ ‘Banned Horse’ and ‘UKPaul’s’ thoughts will be well worth hearing.