Peter the Punter looks at the Individual Seat Markets

In its never-ending quest to find you a bit of value, PB has commissioned at enormous expense some of the finest minds amongst its contributors to see what can be found amongst the markets put up by Ladbrokes, Hills and, most recently, Sky on a number of individual seats at the next General Election.

There is no doubt that Ladbrokes have led the way on this. Their politics expert, none other than The Great Shadsy, has priced up no less than 50 separate markets. Hills priced up 25, an effort which might have been more praiseworthy had it included some not already covered by the Magic Sign. The similarity in many of the odds might cause one more cynical than myself to suspect a bit of cribbing but let us not complain; any firm which puts up Political Markets is a good firm in my books and ought not be discouraged.

Sky deserve much encouragement. Their 28 markets include a number not covered by the other two firms. More important, they have taken a highly independent line in pricing up those which were already covered by their competitors. This obviously throws up considerable potential for value spotting. So what have we spotted?

I have appended a spreadsheet showing all the current prices and highlighted those which, on a quick review, appear to offer a bit of value. You can have some fun comparing and contrasting for yourselves or, if you don’t have the time, I suggest a quick review of the following constituencies could pay dividends.

Leeds NW is particularly striking. At the time of writing, the across the board book appeared to be betting overbroke by 9%:

Labour (Sky) 5.00 [16.66%]
Conservatives (Hills) 2.75 [26.66%]
Lib Dems (Sky) 1.10 [47.61%]

Total percentage [90.93%]

This means you could back all three to weighted amounts and make a small but certain profit. I am greedy though, as you all know, and simply lumped on the Lib Dems who are screaming good value at odds against to retain a seat in which Labour came second last time. If Sky shift the odds as a consequence of my little bet, you have my most insincere apologies.

I promise however that I haven’t touched the others, not of course out of moral rectitude, but because I just don’t know the constituencies well enough. Those of you that do know your constituencies and can see the bookies betting close to 100% across the board ought to be diving in. Good luck.

Oh, and my moles tell me that the most active betting market has been Watford, where the Tories have been a popular choice. No doubt Our Great Leader’s words had something to do with that. Hampstead and Kilburn has also been lively, with the Lib Dems well supported.

Peter the Punter [Peter Smith]
February 5th 2009