Labour slip back in C4 YouGov marginals poll
CONSERVATIVES 43% (nc)
LABOUR 36% (-2)
LIB DEMS 13% (+1)
But are these seats so different from the norm?
The figures above are taken Channel 4’s unique marginals poll and is the third of a series that has been commissioned by the channel. The changes shown are on the last such survey published in October after the bail-out bounce.
Fieldwork finished yesterday and the sample consisted of 2005 electors in in 60 seats where Labour’s majority (on the new boundaries) was 6-14% over the Conservatives. LS on the previous thread calculated that at the last election the shares in these seats would have been CON 34%: LAB 44%: LD 16% – so all swings need to be based on those numbers.
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By my calculation the swing from Labour to the Tories in the marginals poll is slightly higher than in the last standard YouGov survey – but still within the margins of error. So although it supports the idea it doesn’t provide clear-cut evidence that the marginals are behaving differently.
My guess is that as we get closer to the election then the difference between Channel 4 News 60 and standard YouGov polls will increase. Voters become more aware of the situation in their specific seats and, of course, campaigning levels will be a lot higher.
Whatever the poll provides further evidence that the Tories could get a very big majority.
The only slight problem for Cameron is that those polled preferred Ken Clarke to George Osborne as Chancellor by 39% to 15%. The split amongst Lib Dem voters was Clarke 47% – Osborne 9%.
UPDATE: YouGov’s Peter Kellner has since advised me that the baseline percentages in the seats they polled were: Lab 44: Con 33: LD 17: OTH 6. This is slightly different from the figures above and suggests that the Tories might be doing better in the marginals than my initial conclusion.