Could this be the main argument for 2009? If you look at the betting markets or read the pundits then the strong view is that with the huge polling set-backs of recent weeks Brown is not going to call a general election in the foreseeable future. A 2009 election is off the agenda. He’ll want to, the argument goes, give himself the maximum time for the economic crisis to sort itself out and in any case his October 2007 U-turn,…
Could he get accused of “talking Britain down”? The Guardian is reporting a speech by David Cameron to the Davos think-tank is which he raised the spectre of Britain having to go to the IMF in order to be kept afloat – something that last happened during the 1974-1979 Labour government. He’s quoted as saying:”…“If we continue on Labour’s path of fiscal irresponsibility, at some point – and it could be very soon – the money will run out,” Cameron…
How will this affect Dawn’s re-election chances? As we’ve discussed before here one of the most interesting constituency battles in in Brent Central in north-West London where because of boundary changes two women MPs are fighting to stay in parliament. Five and a half years ago, in a political environment dominated by the Iraq War aftermath and the death of David Kelly the Lib Dem, Sarah Teather, beat off a fierce Labour onslaught to take Brent East in a by…
Are columns like this turning the media narrative? There’s a must-read column in the Independent today, highlighted by Ted on the overnight thread, which seems to get to the heart of the political and economic challenges that are facing Britain. So much, Hamilton argues, is tied with the personality of the Prime Minister and his inability to admit uncertainty. Hamilton writes: “..His political dilemma is obvious enough. Having set himself up as the man in control, the leader with the…
How will Politicalbetting’s finest do in the year ahead? With a providential 100 entries exactly for the PB forecaster of the year competition, the predictions have been crunched and the key findings are now available. PM, Opposition Leader, Lib Dem leader at Xmas: 96% and above for all three current incumbents. Speaker at Xmas: Martin 65% Campbell 23% Chancellor at Xmas: Darling 71% Balls 21% Ireland Yes %: Average 47.4%, 56% predict a second “No” Euro averages: Con 37, Lab…
The projection’s now only 8 seats below the summer peak Even though Labour’s opinion poll deficit is considerably better than many of the figures that we saw during June-September 2008 the consensus of opinion on the spread betting market is that there’ll be a Conservative majority of 48 seats. This is based on a Tory mid-point 349 seats and compares with the 353 that the numbers peaked at during the summer. (Every extra seat on the Tory total increases the…
How do they respond to 9 days of polling reverses? While all our eyes have been on Washington Labour is only just assimilating the series of huge poll reverses over the past nine days and the question must be asked – is there anything the party can do now to turn things round again. Just to recall: a week yesterday the Times Populus survey came out putting the Tories on 43% – upping the January deficit from 4 to 10…