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Year: 2008

MRUK data: Boris leading among those certain to vote

MRUK data: Boris leading among those certain to vote

The information over-load continues With Thursday’s London Mayoral election seemingly on a knife-edge every little scrap of information could be helpful to those who are having a punt. The Sunday Times’s pollster, MRUK, is being particularly helpful and their Ivor Knox has just emailed me some information that I thought I ought to pass on. Before applying the turnout filter the first preference split had Ken leading by 45% to 42% After applying the filter which just to include those…

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Is voting certainty at the heart of the battle for London?

Is voting certainty at the heart of the battle for London?

New pollster MRUK has Ken just 1% ahead With just five days to go before the London elections the new pollster, MRUK, has produced for the Sunday Times what we assume is its final survey and it shows the following first preference split with changes on last week – JOHNSON 43%(-1): LIVINGSTONE 44%(-1): PADDICK 9%(nc). After second preferences MRUK make it 51% to 49% for Ken. So the Ken first preference figure is dramatically up on the 36.9% that he…

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Tories back to a double digit lead with ICM

Tories back to a double digit lead with ICM

A third poll has Labour slipping back Just six days after the publication of the Guardian’s April poll showing a big drop in the Tory lead to 5% there another survey from pollster out tonight which has a different picture. The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph reports the following shares with comparisons on the earlier survey: CON 39% (nc): LAB 29% (-5): LD 20% (+1) So the big drop off in the Labour share has not moved to the…

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The Saturday night polling thread

The Saturday night polling thread

Will there be more gloom for Gordon – but what about Ken? There are a number of key polls expected in the tomorrow’s Sunday papers. One of them – MORI for the Observer – was spotted by an eagle-eyed PB contributor last night and we got news of the Tory 9% lead at least a day ahead of anybody else. There’s also going to be a full ICM national voting intention survey in the Sunday Telegraph – and already there…

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MORI: Ken heading for his biggest vote ever

MORI: Ken heading for his biggest vote ever

…and a 60% turnout is projected Due to a series of cock-ups details of the latest trade union-funded poll by Ipsos-MORI have been taken off the pollster’s website but they were on long enough to pick up some key information. Ken’s first preference share projection was put at 41% which is way ahead of the 36.9% he got four years ago and the 39% that he achieved when he first swept into power in 2000. So for every SEVEN Londoners…

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MORI national poll gives Tories a 9% lead

MORI national poll gives Tories a 9% lead

Are we seeing the Observer’s poll two days early? After the big boost for the Tories in this morning’s YouGov poll there’s another national survey out which shows a growing Conservative lead. The MORI Monitor for April has been published on the firm’s website, apparently by mistake, and shows the following shares with the changes on March: CON 40% (nc): LAB 31% (-4): LD 19% (+1). My understanding was that this poll was for the Observer on Sunday. The fieldwork…

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Unison funded MORI poll puts Ken ahead

Unison funded MORI poll puts Ken ahead

A new Ipsos-MORI poll funded by the Unison public service trade union reports that Ken is ahead by 3% on first preferences and 6% after second preferences. (UPDATE: The Guardian report on the poll suggests that the 6% was scaled back to 4% after MORI had factored in whether those interviewed were registered to vote or not.) The first preference figures are KEN 41%: BORIS 38%: PADDICK 12%. After second preferences are taken into account this become KEN 52%: BORIS…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

picture Mike Smithson The 2008 Local Election – The Districts Seventy Eight District Councils will hold elections on May 1st, with around 1,300 seats being contested. Most will just contest one third of the seats, but six will contest half the seats, and three, Barrow-in-Furness, South Lakeland, and Welwyn Hatfield will witness all-out contests, as a result of boundary changes. The majority of councils will see no change in control. Adur, Amber Valley, Basildon, Bassetlaw, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Cherwell, Chorley, Colchester,…

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