crewe.tv This could be a good strategy to get the vote out? Labour’s core strategy in Crewe and Nantwich to portray their main opponent as a “Tory Toff” has attracted a lot of criticism and has even proved a bit too rich for some contributors to LabourHome. The sight, as above, of Labour activists seeking to follow the Tory candidate dressed up as “Toffs” and the emphasis on his background in campaign leaflets has been the principle theme of the…
Is Boris’s “goodbye” a sign that the writ is about to be issued? The above has just gone on the Henley Standard website and suggests that the Tories are going to waste no time in setting the processes in train for an early by election to replace Boris Johnson. The piece is a “goodbye Henley letter” from the new Mayor which seems to suggest that the by election campaign has already started. There had been some speculation that he might…
Is this the most likely “end-game” scenario? Whenever the question of the manner of Gordon’s eventual departure is discussed three different possibilities are raised: that he’ll go after leading Labour to an inglorious defeat at the hands of David Cameron; that he’ll be ousted in a bloody coup; or that he will, like other Prime Ministers before him, stand down on health grounds. Only a few have suggested that he might come to recognise that his leadership is undermining his…
crewe.tv Does pre-election polling help squeeze out the third party? The main reason why I have been so confident in my Crewe and Nantwich predictions is the impact that yesterday’s ICM by election poll will have on voting dynamics, particularly in taking the wind out of the Lib Dems’ standard strategy. For with the huge Tory poll surge the only real threat to Cameron was if the Lib Dems could establish themselves as a challenger to Labour thus splitting the…
All Change in Russia – But No Change At All Balakirev considers the Putin-Medvedev handover After a week in Russia where reminders of past Soviet and pre-Soviet glories were much in evidence, clues to the future under Dimitri Medvedev and Vladimir Putin are still hard to find. Medvedev was sworn in at a stunning ceremony which looked more like a tsarist coronation than an inauguration. The next day, the ex-president, Putin, was voted in as prime minister by Russia’s parliament….
Edward Timpson – Conservative – 796 views Elizabeth Shenton – Liberal Democrat 469 views Tamsin Dunwoody – Labour – 181 views Where candidates have more than one video on YouTube I have taken the one with the most views. Mike Smithson
Mail on Sunday My assessment: the Tories have a 90% chance of winning We’ve now got more information about the Mail on Sunday’s ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by election and it’s clear that the situation is even worse for Labour than was being reported last night. The panel above is reproduced from the paper. For the Tory by election poll margin of 4% would have been 12% but for ICM’s “sprial of silence” adjustment. This is a…
But how much can we trust single constituency polls? According to Iain Dale an ICM poll of 1000 voters in Crewe & Nantwich is suggesting that the Tories are on target for their first by-election gain since 1982. The figures are:- CON 43% Lab 39%: LD 16% Clearly this is a very good pointer for Cameron’s party and the real significance is that it is his party, and not the traditional by election Kings, the Lib Dems who are seen…