Why I believe that Gordon is Safe It is always dangerous to write about the internal culture of a political party which you are not a member of. Nonetheless, I will stick my neck out and say that I expect Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election. That may seem a strange thing to say, on the morning after Labour’s sixth worst by-election result against the Conservatives, and when the Conservatives lead by anything up to 20% in…
Recapping the first by-election thread? While the inquest on Crewe and Nantwich continues it is perhaps worth looking back to what people were saying about the by-election on Friday April 18th when news of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s death became known. The thread is here and to me the most striking feature was the way those of a known Tory allegiance were trying to dampen expectations. I probably overstated the Lib Dem prospects and one or two of the serious betting contributors…
Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this – when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election? The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for…
There’s been some movement on the spread markets over the past twenty four hours. These are the latest spreads from Spreadfair: CON 345.5-354: LAB 228.1-234.5: 45-46.9 So the mid-point Tory level is just under 350 which points to a majority of 48/50 seats. It will be interesting to see how the actual C&N result affects the markets. Mike Smithson
Please use this continuation thread as we await the by-election result. Double Carpet
The PB 10/1 by-election gamble is looking very good Gordon’s smile says it all. Cast your mind back just eleven months to that euphoric day, June 27th 2007, when the Blair era ended and the Brown era began. Not long after the formalities the picture was taken outside Number 10 and during the following hour there was a huge buzz on PB. It started at 3.15 pm with this comment by Charlie – “some excellent new markets on hills ive…
Is this why she is staying in the race? An interesting article by Roger Simon on the excellent Politico site assesses whether Hillary has the strength and the arguments to force her way onto the ticket to occupy the V-P slot. He writes:”…Her victories in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia and her strength with women and white working-class voters have fuelled the argument that Barack Obama must put her on the ticket if he wins the nomination…
Could an appalling result start a chain reaction? On October 18th 1990 a by-election took place in the Sussex seaside resort of Eastbourne to fill the vacancy caused by the the death of Ian Gow, the previous MP and close friend of Margaret Thatcher who had been murdered by the Provisional IRA. The result, as seen above, was a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats. The result, reproduced from Wikipedia above, particularly in view of the circumstances of the by-election,…