Obama versus Hillary – the final post
The Democratic Party battle comes to a close Click on the panel for the AP story. On a personal note I feel a little sad. Latest betting on the Presidency itself is here. Mike Smithson
Are we heading for a Tory landslide or not?
Will the upcoming polling round make us any the wiser? In the two weeks and two days since the Crewe and Nantwich by-election we have had just two national voting intention opinion polls and the fieldwork for both took place during school holiday periods which have, in the past, led to results being skewed. So the upcoming polling round, which hopefully should start with surveys for at least one of the Sunday papers and will certainly see the monthly Populus…
Sean Fear’s Friday slot
How a Defeat Can Turn into a Rout One feature of the 2005 election was how well-distributed the Labour vote was, in terms of maximising the number of seats won by the Party. A 3% lead produced an overall majority of 66 (or 46, on the new boundaries). One feature of this was that around a quarter of Labour MPs had majorities in the 10-20% range, over the Conservatives, compared to fewer than a fifth who had majorities of less…
What my software thought of Nick Clegg’s email
How should the Lib Dems handle the Henley campaign? Reproduced above is what happened when my email software, Thunderbird, opened a Henley campaign email sent yesterday from Nick Clegg to thousands of party members, including myself. I’ve included this partly as a bit of fun and to help illustrate a broader question about the by election which has now been set for a fortnight next Thursday – how does Clegg’s party fight in Tory held seats? For in the two…
Is this the template for the future?
Are short primary seasons a thing of the past? From the Iowa Caucuses on 3rd January to the South Dakota and Montana primaries on June 3rd, the five months of official campaigning in the Democratic primaries constituted the final act of choosing a nominee for President of the United States. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had announced their candidacies a year or so before Iowa, and their exploratory committees had been laying the groundwork as far back as Autumn…
The chances of a replacement for Gordon
A guest article from Tim Dodds There’s much talk about Labour dumping Gordon Brown before the next general election. Here are some considerations, from my perspective, that may count in Labour’s deliberations: One thing is certain; the game is on for a new leader. The final plays in the game may not be this year, next year, or even before the next general election. But make no mistake Gordon Brown is in an unrecoverable position. The horizon ahead of him…
Will Labour be out of power for as long as last time?
Could Dave beat Maggie’s 11 years at Number 10? As we face the real prospect of a change of government it is a sobering thought that these days parties stay in office for quite considerable periods of time. Labour will have been there for 13 years assuming they go on until 2010. Before that, of course, the Tories went on from 1979 right through until 1997 – a total of eighteen years. For once confidence in a party of government…
The starting gun for Henley is fired
Wikimedia Commons Are the Conservatives value at almost any price? Following the historic result in Crewe & Nantwich, the next UK betting event for political punters is now underway, with the official announcement that Boris Johnson has been appointed to the Manor of Northstead, the new London Mayor making his final appearance in the Commons today. At the time of writing, the date has not been confirmed but is widely expected to be 26th June. So, what will the opening…