Betfair alone sees £5m being traded on the White House race With eight and a half months to go before the US election in November it’s clear that the race will become the biggest political betting event ever on UK markets. So far on the Betfair exchange alone just on £5m worth of bets have been traded and my estimate is that with the spread firms and the fixed odd bookies well over £10m has now been wagered on the…
Are there lessons for the UK in this NON-AD for Hillary? Under US campaign funding rules the maximum that anyone can donate is $2300. This is one of the reasons why the Clinton campaign has found it hard to compete with Obama who has built up a mass fundraising base. But there are not the same limitations if you give to other organisations and some big Clinton supporters are said to be behind the latest initiative. The above ad, reported…
One “poll” that we haven’t yet covered was one by Harris in the Financial Times yesterday where interviewees in several European countries were asked about who they would “vote” for in the Democratic race if they had a chance – Hillary or Obama. A total of 5,000 people were asked across five countries with Obama coming out the decisive winner in four of them. The French, Italians, Spanish and Germans all gave it to the black Senator by quite big…
Does he regret snubbing Barack back in the summer? A story in the Times overnight has it that Brown is desperately trying to build relations with Barack Obama after snubbing the now Democratic front-runner during the summer. According to the paper a meeting had been tentatively fixed but then Downing Street “got the willies” and the possible future President of the United States was offered a drop by private meeting instead. President Sarkozy of France, by contrast, offered Mr Obama…
Does another double-digit defeat mean that she’s nearly out? With Wisconsin delivering another sharp blow to the Hillary campaign it is beginning to look as though this might soon be over. What was startling in the latest primary was the sheer scale of Obama’s victory which was well in excess of almost anything that had been predicted by the polls. This suggests, as we have seen in the other post-Super Tuesday contests, that the Obama camp is much more effective…
The polls close at 2am GMT when we should get the results of the exit polls.
The poll that caught me by surprise My apologies for not getting a thread up earlier but the latest Guardian ICM poll has taken me by surprise – I wasn’t expecting it until next Tuesday which would have followed the paper’s normal pattern. Also the fieldwork took place at the end of the half term week in many places when a lot of people are away. Pollsters tend to avoid such periods because they have thrown up odd results in…
This article by Roger Simon appeared on the Politico site this afternoon. Click in the graphic to read the full feature. If this is the case then it could add even more uncertainty.