And this is just a week of polling! At the end of last week, with the finalisation of the result from Missouri the spread firms finally settled the White House race electoral college votes markets which many of us had been playing for months. For me, having an average Obama buy position of 320 ECVS, it meant that I won the difference between the bet and the outcome (365 ECVS) multiplied by my stake level. Nice but it would have…
CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 31% (+1) LIB DEMS 19% (+1) ICM reports an 11% Tory lead After all the election speculation following the non-past voted weighted MORI poll on Tuesday reports are coming in of a new ICM poll which puts the Tories 11% ahead. The main difference between ICM and MORI is that the former takes measures to ensure a politically balanced sample through past vote weighting. MORI doesn’t and as I was arguing on Wednesday the latest survey…
And what else might happen in this term? I was a little surprised at the recent non-announcement that Hillary Clinton is to be offered the job of Secretary of State by President-Elect Obama. Unlike others, I see her as perfectly well qualified, and can understand that after having come so close to leading her party that her junior status in the Senate was not particularly appealing. I have no doubt that her network and reputation will allow her to do…
Is his position-play strong enough to overcome a weak hand? Many years before I started political betting, I was an avid poker player. I wasn’t tremendously successful, but I broke even or better at some pretty tough clubs, and knew the game as well as most. As one of the few games with as rich a literature as chess, I understood this princely game sufficiently to appreciate the very best, even if I wasn’t worthy of sitting opposite them. I…
But will the next set of polls follow MORI? The panel show the latest spread betting levels on the three main markets. There will be 650 seats next time so to ensure a majority a party will need 325. As can be seen there is now something of a division between IG Index and PB’s co-sponsor, Sporting Index. It’s not often you see a gap as large as five seats in the Tory and Labour spreads between the two companies….
Has the PM been transformed into a “risk taker”? On the Andrew Neil programme last night Michael Portillo made an acute observation which I’ve been thrashing about in my mind ever since – that recent events have led to a transformation in Brown’s character and that he might have become a risk-taker and a gambler. At the time of the Glenrothes by-election I pondered that that for him to become so personally involved was an enormous risk. If Labour hadn’t…
Why Linford’s right about bloggers in the lobby The former Westminster journalist and now leading blogger, Paul Linford, is stepping up his calls for members of the new media, bloggers, to be allowed into the lobby. He notes: “…what we must now call the Big Five political blogs are, by virtue of their size, influence, and networks, practically part of the mainstream media already. They are, in no particular order, Iain Dale’s Diary, Guido Fawkes, Political Betting, Conservative Home and…
Will Gord get thanked for all the bargains? If there’s one place where the recession will be most apparent in the coming months it’s going to be the High Street. Yesterday one major retail chain changed hands for just £1 and others are reported to be struggling particularly in the non-essentials sector of the market. Tomorrow I expect to be buying a new computer and my first thought was to go to a big national chain where there are some…