Browsed by
Month: November 2008

The Pre-Budget Report: the clashes continue

The Pre-Budget Report: the clashes continue

How will Gord and Dave do tomorrow? In view of its importance in setting out the battlegrounds for the general election it’s hardly surprising that the political day has been dominated by skirmishes over yesterday’s statement by Chancellor Darling. We’ve seen the Tories arguing that the detail of the plans means that people earning as little as £19,000 a year will be worse off and questions over whether the new 45% tax rate will actually bring in more revenue. All…

Read More Read More

Is the betting a foretaste of the polls?

Is the betting a foretaste of the polls?

Or are punters just wishful thinking? If the betting markets have got this one right then we should be seeing the post-budget polls showing a move away from Labour and for the Tories to be increasing their lead again. The chart shows just one market – the price converted into an implied probability of Labour securing an overall majority at the general election. Other general election markets have seen similar reactions with gamblers seeming to think that yesterday’s key statement…

Read More Read More

Can Labour win without being “New”?

Can Labour win without being “New”?

But will it look differently by the weekend? A theme that’s taken up by many of the papers this morning is that yesterday’s statement by Chancellor Darling marked the end of New Labour – that creation fourteen and a half years ago that became such a powerful electoral force. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown made their party electable and led them out of the political wilderness through three stunning general election victories. Yesterday the party reverted to a more traditional…

Read More Read More

Have the battlelines been drawn?

Have the battlelines been drawn?

Was this really the most socialist PBR since Sunny Jim? So with as much high drama as could be summoned, the Chancellor has delivered his Pre-Budget report, with the key measures of cutting VAT to 15% and raising the top-level of Income Tax not a surprise to anyone who reads the newspapers. The Shadow Chancellor issued a stinging rebuttal, though whilst the passion of the performance was undeniable, critics are characterising the lack of policy as meaning that the Tories…

Read More Read More

With all eyes on Westminster….

With all eyes on Westminster….

Darling’s statement – the continuation thread Alistair Darling has given his Pre-Budget Report speech, with the highlights being largely as expected: VAT cut from 17.5% to 15% for 13 months beginning on Monday, and an increase in the basic rate of Income Tax to 45% for those earning over £150,000. What had not been leaked was the increase in National Insurance Contributions by 0.5% from April 2011 which has been targetted by George Osborne in his rebuttal. Similarly, I would…

Read More Read More

Have the leaks been designed to wrong-foot Osborne?

Have the leaks been designed to wrong-foot Osborne?

Is today the start of the election campaign? Make no mistake: the “leaks” that we’ve been seeing ahead of this afternoon’s PBR statement by the Chancellor have nothing to do with smart journalism or a desire by ministers to be open and accountable. This is all deliberate, well planned and is about shaping the environment in which the statement is received and, of course, trying to get one over on George Osborne. And before you shout that this is unfair…

Read More Read More

Can only a step-change in opinion stop Cameron?

Can only a step-change in opinion stop Cameron?

Will the PBR make the media narrative a reality? It’s a measure of how completely potty the media has become in recent weeks that on the eve of the the PBR and all the talk of an early general election that there’s been an almost total news black-out on yesterday’s ICM showing the Tories on 42%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems scoring 19%. You would have thought that every little bit of polling data would have been devoured,…

Read More Read More

Israel’s locals – a pointer to the Knesset?

Israel’s locals – a pointer to the Knesset?

A guest article from Shneur Odze On 11th November there were local elections for directly elected mayors and local councillors. They were largely expected to prove a gauge for the general election in February. However commentators have been searching to see if any indicators exist. I feel there are one or two. For the past 35 years there has been a token protest party which changes at every general election, starting with Dash the original centrist party led by Israel’s…

Read More Read More