Who’ll come out best from the Green arrest? This morning I was expecting to be writing about a new voting intention poll following Monday’s PBR statement. Well that appears to have been held over because of the explosive political story that broke last night over the arrest of the Tory shadow immigration minister, Damian Green, by police investigating a series of leaks from the Home Office. Clearly this is a developing story which from what we know at the moment…
Unconfirmed rumours that Damien Green has been arrested James Forsyth at the Spectator earlier broke a story that rumours were swirling around the Westminster Village that a big story was about to break about a member of David Cameron’s team. ConservativeHome indicates that it is that Damien Green MP, the Shadown Immigration Minister, has been arrested. Sky News is reporting that the Met has confirmed a man in his fifties has been arrested, but not charged, for conspiracy to commit…
News is just coming through of a Populus poll for the Times taken in the wake of Monday’s PBR statement. A voting intention question was not asked but the pollster weighted the sample by past votes which makes it politically representative. The findings are a marked contrast with the Telegraph’s YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and Tuesday. It is a real pity that there are no voting numbers. Peter Riddell reports in the Times: “Support for…
Will ID cards keep the Iraq switchers with the LDs? One of the great hopes which has sustained Labour during its recent bad times is that come the general election then many of the former supporters who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will return to the fold. For it will be recalled that this was the biggest voting dynamic in 2005. Much of Labour’s 6% decline on four years earlier could be put down to the large numbers who went…
Introducing PB’s new election “predictor” In the run-up to the 2005 General Election PB first started trying to produce a regular prediction of the likely outcome based on taking the average of opinion on the spread-betting commons seats markets. These are betting arenas where gamblers can be risking large amounts of cash “buying and selling” commons seats. The seat spreads that you see every day are a reflection of where the cash is going – hence the terms “Balance of…
How secure is Labour’s polling base? PB’s cartoonist, Marf of LondonSketchbook.com, has come up with another cracker which is probably not far off the mark in summing up the mood in Downing Street. For after being so far behind for so long Gord wouldn’t be human if he didn’t get a lift from another poll showing that Labour is getting quite close. He must be careful, however, not to see seen to be using the crisis for party political purposes….
The PMQs thread With the political atmosphere becoming highly charged we can, surely, expect a lively PMQs today? This kicks off at midday and lasts for half an hour. This will be the first time that Gord and Dave will have the opportunity to argue about the new economic strategy – for on Monday the battle was left to their proxies – both old boys of exclusive public schools – Alastair Darling and George Osborne. If Monday had been a…
CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (nc) Will this revive early election date speculation? A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday. The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the…