CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1)
LABOUR 36% (nc)
LIB DEMS 14% (nc)

Will this revive early election date speculation?

A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday.

The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the speech. Just look also at the PB threads of Monday evening when the general view was that this was bad for Brown and his party.

This is a bit like those post-debate polls that we saw last month in the US presidential election. On the nights the “experts” concluded that McCain had won or it was a draw yet the polling favoured the Democrat. It was said that public reaction was favouring Obama not for things that he said but for how he appeared.

I wonder whether the “unflashy” and sobering presentational style of Alastair Darling was right for the moment. We’ll see from other polling.

One factor about YouGov is that its weightings are relatively unfavourable to the Lib Dems and quite friendly to Labour and a critical question is which pollster has got the split between these two parties right? My money is on ICM and I’ve taken out a wager that Clegg’s party will secure 17% or more of the GB vote at the election.

The best betting price on a 2009 election is 13/8.

Mike Smithson