Could McCain-Palin pull something back in the final few days?

The panel shows the latest spread prices on the US election from Sporting Index where there has been a further move away from John McCain in the past day. The other markets from IG Index and Spreadfair are a bit more favourable to McCain in their electoral college votes spread.

A full range of betting exchange and convention bookie US Election prices is here.

A big question now is what’s going to happen during the final ten days. Could it be, that as is being predicted in some quarters there will be a tightening as the contest reaches its close? Or could it be with the massive amounts of money available to him that Obama so dominates the TV screens in the closing stages that his lead increases?

If you buy into the “it’ll get tighter” theory then you could, for instance, be backing McCain on the exchanges with the intention of laying off should the polls and prices move. Another option is to look at the individual state betting where you could pick up good McCain prices on states where a McCain recovery could most show through.

My gambling vehicle of choice is spread betting where you can buy and sell the number of ECVs that will be won on November 4th. So if the polling does prompt a move back to McCain you could see the ECV spread go from the current 184-190 to over 200 again. If that happened, and there must be a possibility, you could cash in your bet before the election and pocket your profits there and then without even waiting for the results to be known!

Politicalbetting has a commission arrangement with Sporting Index which produces some revenue to help towards the costs of running the site. As a special incentive the firm is now offering to give a copy of my book – “The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics” to everybody who opens an account through the links on PB and places a bet. I am told that this offer will last until at least the election – and maybe beyond.

Mike Smithson