Why £23 of my Mandy profit is going on PRESIDENT Palin

As I have reported before I continue to be intrigued by Sarah Palin. Is she up to something? Could conceivably she try to boot McCain off the top of the ticket even though we are just four weeks from polling day? Are there any betting opportunities?

All this has been reinforced by a column in the New York Times by Frank Rich in which he contrasts McCain’s health and his continuing gaffes with the way Sarah Palin is performing and how her unique approach is resonating with significant sections of the population.

He writes: “..So how can a desperate G.O.P. save itself? As McCain continues to fade into incoherence and irrelevance, the last hope is that he’ll come up with some new game-changing stunt to match his initial pick of Palin or his ill-fated campaign “suspension.” Until Thursday night, more than a few Republicans were fantasizing that his final Hail Mary pass would be to ditch Palin so she can “spend more time” with her ever-growing family. But the debate reminded Republicans once again that it’s Palin, not McCain, who is their last hope for victory…You have to wonder how long it will be before they plead with him to think of his health, get out of the way and pull the ultimate stunt of flipping the ticket. Palin, we can be certain, wouldn’t even blink.”

One element to bear in mind is that Palin has got form in this area. At every stage in her political career the male politicians who have helped her to progress have later found themselves being knifed.

Her latest public criticism of McCain for getting out of Michigan seems remarkable and suggests she is trying to distance herself from her running mate.

As to the betting £23 of my profits on Mandy not serving a full term with the EU has gone on Palin becoming next president. This produces potential winnings of £10,026. Crazy? Maybe – maybe not. Like all these things it is all about an assessment of probabilities. In my book there seems to be a better than 0.23% chance that this could come about.

If you think I’m wrong – fine. But are you 99.77% certain – if not then I have a value bet.

Mike Smithson