It’s 10/1 that he won’t make it to the general election?

On July 29th 2004, just as Peter Mandelson was about to take up his role as EU Commissioner, we suggested here that the 3/1 that was then available on him leaving the role early was worth looking at noting that “looking at the form book this might be a good bet!”

So another PB tip comes good and I must check with William Hill to find out how much I put on and pick up my winnings. This is a bet, frankly, that I had forgotten about.

The bookie has now got up another market “offering 10/1 that Mr Mandelson will leave his new cabinet role before the next General Election.” Well Mandelson’s form on going early from jobs is even better and that price looks great. All my winnings on the 2004 bet will be ploughed back.

For Mandy has form and the media are not going to give him an easy ride. For that reason alone I think that Gord has got this one wrong.

Kevin Maguire in the Mirror puts it like this: “If Gordon Brown hopes people have forgotten who Peter Mandelson was he will be badly mistaken. Both will hate the ridicule coming their way. To turn to a figure who personified a lack of trust in politicians is a grave error”

My reading of the terms of the bet is that you have a winner even if Mandy’s gets switched to another cabinet role and anything could happen with the party in the run-up to the general election. Will Brown survive Glenrothes, for instance, and would a replacement leader leave Mandy in the same place? The bet looks good to me.

Mike Smithson