What if “Troopergate” gets out of hand?

So the White House race has come alive and promises to be an absorbing contest which will grip us for seven weeks or so and maybe even beyond.

“Lipstickgate” has been the issue of the day and the way it has developed reflects the changing media narrative – Obama is under fire as the focus goes on Sarah Palin.

On the polling front the Gallup daily tracking poll is now showing a 5% McCain lead which does suggest that the convention bounce is being retained.

One thought to come out of today on the McCain campaign is from MSNBC’s Chuck Todd who suggests that he’s betting an enormous amount on Palin. He notes: “..He doesn’t get crowds without her. She was already supposed to be in Alaska getting ready to send her son off to war, getting sort of her house in order to start campaigning solo. Now there’s a lot of question: Does McCain even bother campaigning solo, or are they campaigning in a tandem because they can get the real crowds… McCain-Palin events look like Obama events a month ago.”

McCain’s Palin gamble could be magnified by the publication of a Newsweek investigation into what’s become know as “Troopergate”. Apparently the GOP V-P nominee was warned by a judge over her actions in relation to Trooper Michael Wooten who at the time was involved in a bitter custody battle with Palin’s sister.

If it’s shown that she used her position to settle a personal score then that could be serious for McCain. What does it say about his “vetting” process if there was one?

In the betting McCain is now at the equivalent of a 42% probability which I think is about right. I’m not betting at the moment – thanks to earlier good punts I make a packet if it’s Obama and a similar amount if it’s not.

Live White House Race Prices.

Mike Smithson