Has the race reached a tipping point?

As the chart shows there was a time at during November and December 2007 when the McCain betting price for President reached 40/1 and congratulations to those on the site who were highlighting this at the time and got bets on at what now seem sensational prices.

Alas I was not one of them. I took the view that the 72 year old Vietnam veteran was just too old and didn’t give him a chance. How wrong can you can be?

For even if McCain doesn’t do it the 40/1 punters have a bet which has a current value which they can lay off now on the betting exchanges or the spread markets.

But should they? Overnight the best McCain price has tightened to 13/8 and that could move even further following the first polls showing the full impact of last week’s Republican Party convention.

The latest USA Today poll makes it 50-46% for registered voters and a 54-44% split amongst those voters who say they are “likely to vote” But you would expect post convention polls to show a boost – we need to wait a week to see the full impact. Just before last week’s convention and after the Democratic one the same polling survey had McCain trailing by 7%.

One worry that the McCain camp should have is that so much of the polling move seems to be down to the Sarah Palin affect – not too McCain himself. That can’t be healthy and it makes her potentially very powerful.

She over-shadowed him at the convention and is continuing to attract all the media attention. She’s become the big star and, unlike McCain, seems to push all the right buttons with the Republican party base.

Maybe this is crazy and I’m throwing money away but I’ve invested £14 of my V-P nomination profits with bets at an average of 422/1 on her to be the next president. It will only take a McCain sneeze or a senior moment for that price to come right in. Remember her quip “What’s the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick!”. She doesn’t sound like someone who’ll be content to stay for long as a number two.

Thanks I’ve just got back from my holiday in France and for me this morning is back to normal. I am most grateful to Morus and Paul Maggs for all they did to keep the site going. They did a great job.

Mike Smithson