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Month: August 2008

Aug 6th 2007: the day Gordomania hit its peak

Aug 6th 2007: the day Gordomania hit its peak

Would PM Miliband get the same fawning treatment? Exactly a year ago today the Guardian asked breathlessly whether any previous incoming prime minister had had such a first month in office having to deal with one “crisis” after another. To recap there had been some storms, a failed terrorist attack in Glasgow and some animals had got ill. Out of the ordinary? To a limited degree but nothing on the scale that several other incoming prime ministers had had to…

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How long before Labour is back in the lead again?

How long before Labour is back in the lead again?

Could it be months, years or even more than a decade? Exactly a year ago we ran a competition here asking when entrants thought that the Conservatives would regain their poll lead over Labour. The thread makes an interesting read. At the time the Tory deficit ranged from 3% to 9% (the biggest coming from YouGov) and it took the party just two months to restore the situation. The current Labour deficits are reproduced above and the question now is…

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Is a 2008 exit the best Brown bet?

Is a 2008 exit the best Brown bet?

Is getting the leader out easier than was thought? Writing the piece this morning has really focussed my attention on the chances that Brown could be out this year. The process, as set out in the previous post, is a lot easier than first appeared and crucially does not, in the initial stage, involve the input of Labour MPs. The parliamentary party, as Nick Palmer MP keeps on reminding us, is not of a mind that it wants change. But…

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Is this where Gord’s fate could be decided?

Is this where Gord’s fate could be decided?

Could a resolution make it to the conference floor? In all the discussion about Labour’s rule-book and how a challenge to Mr. Brown could come about the most clear explanation came in Alan Watkins’s column in this weekend’s Indy on Sunday. For there has been a lot of confusion over the role of Labour MPs who retain the power to nominate. The critical element, however, is how a contest when the leader wants to stay is initiated and it is…

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Are UK markets behind on the White House Race?

Are UK markets behind on the White House Race?

Is now the time to be betting against Barack? Several people on the site have been making the point in the past couple of days that Betfair and other UK betting firms are trailing behind the US-focussed markets on the McCain-Obama battle. Quite simply, given recent polling, this is much tighter than the betting prices here might suggest. Thus the automated telephone pollster, Rasmussen, is reporting today that its tracking poll now has McCain ahead by one point and across…

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Could Harriet carry it with the support of women?

Could Harriet carry it with the support of women?

The detailed data from ICM’s weekend poll is now out and the most interesting findings are on who voters would like to see as next Labour leader in place of Gordon Brown. Respondents were first asked who they would recognise if they saw them walking down the street. Not surprisingly the justice secretary, Jack Straw, who has been in high profile role for longer than any of them came out top with a 79% recognition factor. Second was Harriet Harman…

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Has Cameron de-contaminated Brand Conservative?

Has Cameron de-contaminated Brand Conservative?

How does Labour attack a party that is no longer hated? Reading Carole Cadwalladr’s enjoyable feature in the Observer Review yesterday “So we are all Tories now? the thought struck me that something very profound has happened to British politics – the Tories are no longer hated. And this simple fact could have a dramatic effect on the next general election because it takes away the core proposition that Labour have deployed so successfully for a decade and a half…

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Following in Golda’s footsteps?

Following in Golda’s footsteps?

Could Tzipi Livni become Israel’s first woman PM since Golda Meir? Ehud Olmert, mired in corruption allegations, announced earlier this week that he would not contest September’s Kadima leadership primary. With a weak mandate to start with (just 29 seats and 22% of the vote in 2006), the Lebanon war, unpopularity to rival Gordon Brown’s, and the recent investigations, he will leave office as one of the shortest-serving PMs since the creation of Israel in 1948, although should his efforts…

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