At least it will end the betting misery

If ever there’s been a market that’s alerted me to the fact that I might have a problem with betting on politics it has been on Barack Obama’s choice of running mate. As I noted here in June – betting on this is a “mug’s game” because it’s the choice of just one man and we can only speculate on what his criteria will be.

Normally I like to think that I’m a completely rational gambler, examining the evidence and only placing bets where the return is greater than my assessment of the likelihood of something happening. Yet on the Obama running mate market I’ve placed one silly bet after another and I fear that I’m going to end up a loser.

I’ve had a view for a long time that Obama has to choose a woman yet the latest from the US commentators is that it is likely to be a white male. How do they know?

Betting has not been helped by the rock-solid security from Camp Obama and there’ve been no leaks – only a vast amount of speculation over every little piece of information to emerge as we’ve seen over the past week with details of the Denver convention programme.

The form of the announcement, when it comes and hopefully that will be within the next 36 hours, only adds to the mystery. Hundreds of thousands or maybe even millions who have registered their mobile number with the campaign web-site are going to get the news first by text message.

So looking over my books I make a reasonable net profit if its Sebelius, Clinton, Veneman or Wes Clark. Anybody else and I’m a loser and for more than I would like to admit.

Moderation note I am away for the next 24 hours and will not be monitoring the site or the moderation box as often as I normally do. Automated moderation is on which means that only those who have posted here before with the same name and email address will be able to publish instantly.

There are likely to be many days like this over the next two and a half weeks so please be patent.

Mike Smithson