Are her V-P chances really better than 10%?

Maybe I am being a mug, maybe I have contributed too much already to Shadsy at Ladrokes and other bookies’ profits on the Democratic V-P nomination, maybe I should have stuck with my self-denying ordinance not to throw any more money at this issue but I’ve just placed a bet at 10/1 on the former first lady.

Partly it was the discussion on the overnight thread, partly it was reading the latest move to get Hillary formally nominated at the Denver convention; and partly I have not been convinced by Obama’s grandstanding with one possible V-P after another – the latest being Evan Bayh in Indiana.

Also we were being told that Obama would want to get this all sorted before the Olympics start. Now the message is that this is being put back and it could be that the big news comes only a day or so before the Denver convention opens. Given that nearly half the delegates will be Clinton supporters, some of whom are still feeling aggrieved, it seems to me that the closer the announcement is to the convention the better the chances are for Hillary.

I was very struck by this from comment from StJohn“…Well, I have shifted my position on this market. The day Hillary, unguardedly, revealed her view about any candidate’s mortal nature in a POTUS election campaign, I sold her prospects as Obama’s VP.

Up until recently Obama has looked reasonably sure to win the POTUS race. Now it looks less certain to me and a few others.

If he had succumbed after the Democrat leadership contest and given Hillary the VP spot as her condition for that, then he would have been weakened. If he offers it to her now, from a position of strength, after mature reflection and “vetting” of all the candidates, then I think he is home and hosed.

An agreement between himself and Hillary as to their respective roles, Bill not part of the picture, could be just what is required. Obviously this is all my own speculation but the current situation and odds suggest it is plausible.”

The big plus about having Hillary on the ticket is that she can energise a Democratic party base that is much broader than Obama’s supporters. The down-side is that her presence could act as an incentive for wavering Republican supports to turnout and vote McCain. On balance I think that the former outweighs the latter.

Latest live V-P nomination prices.

Coming up on PB: Henry G Manson gives his assessment of likely runners for the Labour leadership. His conclusion might come as a surprise.

Mike Smithson