Electoral-vote.com

Is this the way to capitalise on Obama’s possible big victory?

The above map is reproduced from the excellent Electoral-Vote.com which takes all the latest state polls and expresses them graphically on a map of the US. The solid blue states look set to go the Democratic; the solid red ones to the Republicans and the others are leaning in one direction or another or are exactly tied.

It’s updated every day and my guess is that we will all be looking at it a lot in the run-up to November 5th.

There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs and the candidate who gets to 270 is the winner. On the latest polling things look good for Barack Obama but will that last?

For political gamblers betting on the number of EC votes each the candidates will get adds an interesting new dimension. I like going on the spreads because with this form of betting the more you are right the more you win.

As I’ve reported in the last week or so I am a buyer of Democratic party EC votes at just over the 290 level. So if Obama gets to the 317 being predicted by the polling I would win 317 – 290 = 27 multiplied by my stake level. I am also a small seller of McCain at the 240 level.

The big problem is that at the moment punters and the bookies don’t seem to be interested. The only market is on Spreadfair where you are limited by what other punters want to bet. I’ve been snapping up almost everything that has been offered on Obama or for sale on McCain.

Why don’t the other spread firms, the traditional bookies and the betting exchanges get something up? This will get bigger and bigger as we get nearer the day.

Mike Smithson