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Month: June 2008

Spreadbetting market sees significant shift

Spreadbetting market sees significant shift

Are Tory supporters getting nervous? Mike Smithson has asked me to highlight significant movement on the Sporting Index political spreadbetting markets. After victory in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election, the mid-point between the Buy and Sell price on Conservative seats at the next election had been around 350, implying that David Cameron would enjoy a majority of around 50. Today, that mid-point price dropped to 335, suggesting a majority of only 20. It seems inevitable that this is largely in…

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Ireland votes No – so what happens now?

Ireland votes No – so what happens now?

No has 53.7% with just 5 results left With a joint statement expected from Merkel and Sarkozy this evening, what will be the next step for the EU after a comfortable win for the “No” camp in Ireland? Only eight out of 38 constituencies declared have so far voted Yes, with a margin of just 4 votes in Carlow-Kilkenny. RTE Irish Times Results detail Double Carpet

Is Ireland heading for a No vote?

Is Ireland heading for a No vote?

No leads comfortably in most parts of Ireland Early indications as the count proceeds in Ireland are that the Lisbon Treaty referendum has been lost. Tallies from the constituencies show that most of the country is voting No by a wide margin (60-40 in some Dublin seats for example). No constituencies have yet declared, and the final result is expected by teatime. If this result is confirmed there will certainly be some thinking to be done at the EU, and…

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Isn’t the news agenda going to just move on?

Isn’t the news agenda going to just move on?

Will we still remember the cause on polling day? I’m on the penultimate day of my touring holiday in Spain and haven’t had much access to the UK media during the past extraordinary 24 hours so it’s hard forming an opinion of how this is going to play. Hopefully we should see some quickie poll soundings which will give a sense of whether the former Shadow Home Secretary has made a ghastly mistake or whether he has public support. A…

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Who will stand against David Davis?

Who will stand against David Davis?

Will the Labour Party run against David Davis? Guido is running with a story that the Labour PPC for Haltemprice & Howden is (according to Guido’s sources) opposed to 42-days detention without trial. If true, this puts Labour in a difficult position. They are already talking about not running a candidate on the grounds that it dignifies what they see as a stunt. The party’s financial worries mean that a third by-election in a matter of weeks puts unwelcome pressure…

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How will this look on July 11th?

How will this look on July 11th?

Will voters turn out for an ‘unneccessary’ by-election? Above is the result for the constituency of Haltemprice & Howden (likely to be known as H&H) from the General Election of 2005. That night, with Michael Howard announcing his resignation, David Davis must have spent the evening’s celebrations wondering if he would in fact become Conservative leader, and in all probability Prime Minister after Gordon Brown. David Cameron’s victory did not see him banished to the backbenches – David Davis was…

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Who expected this?

Who expected this?

BBC News website is reporting that David Davis, Shadow Home Secretary and MP for Haltemprice and Howden is to resign as an MP. The Times today had a story that he told David Cameron that he would rather resign than support the Government’s efforts to extend the period of pre-charge detention beyond 28 days. With the Conservatives having opposed the Government, David Davis should have been appeased, which begs the obvious question – what has led him to resign? UPDATE:…

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