Would Sebelius on the ticket be the ultimate insult? It’s not surprising, given the nature of the primary contest, that of the top three in the Democratic VP betting two are women. Hillary (4/1), of course, is still up there and there continues to be a lot being said on her behalf. Given that this does not need to be announced until the end of August it would be easier by then for Barack to choose his former opponent without…
Can Cameron rely on those who didn’t vote last time? In September 2007, when Labour was riding high and Gordon could do no wrong, I questioned several times whether the poll shares we were seeing were robust because so much of the “new” support for the party was coming from people who had not voted at the 2005 general election. As anybody with experience of on the ground campaigning knows the most reliable electors are those who have a record…
A guest article by David Herdson So, it’s over. After over 16 months of formal candidacy and eight years or so as the Democratic front-runner for this nomination, Hillary’s finally bowed out of the race. She put up a strong fight, winning many millions of votes in the primaries and raising vast amounts of money. Unfortunately for her, Obama raised even vaster amounts and concentrated his votes more effectively (especially in the caucuses). That provides the Democrats with a very…
Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…
Labour nudge up two points from their record low The second of the night’s opinion polls, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows a small improvement for Labour on the last survey from the firm at the end of May. The latest figures with changes on that poll are: CON 47% (nc): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (nc). The fieldwork took place on Thursday and Friday – important because it was on Thursday that David Davis made his big announcement….
A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday gives the Tories an 18% lead. These are the numbers and changes compared with the last poll by the firm at the end of May. CON 44% (+1): LAB 26% (nc): LD 17% (-2): OTH 13% (+1) CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-4): LD 17% (+1) But the pollster found that Tory support dropped sharply after David Davis announced he was standing down. In interviews before 1pm on Thursday, the…
Spread punters start backing the Tories again The big move back to Labour on commons seats spread betting markets has taken a tumble during the day with Tory buying and Labour selling causing a four seat switch with both main parties. Based on the mid-points from the Sporting Index prices above the market is now reflecting a Tory overall majority of 28 seats at the next election compared with the 20 seat projection that Morus reported last night. True this…
Have punters got this one right? The latest buy spread level for Lib Dem general election seats is 48 – that’s 15 short of what they have at the moment. Does this represent a betting opportunity and if so which way? The detailed data from the latest ICM polls shows that Labour was just three percent ahead of the LDs before the application of of the so-called “spiral of silence adjustment” – the calculation whereby a proportion of the vote…