Browsed by
Month: June 2008

Another poll gives Gordon the red light

Another poll gives Gordon the red light

Unregistered BPIX puts the Tories on 49% The start of Brown’s first anniversary week sees more disappointing poll news – this time from BPIX – the polling firm that is not registered with the British Polling Council and whose website consists of just one page that has been “under construction” for several years. The survey, in the Mail on Sunday, is the first from the pollster since October last year so there’s no real point in showing comparisons. Today’s figures,…

Read More Read More

Pictures from Thursday’s PB barbecue

Pictures from Thursday’s PB barbecue

Given the fact that we had only announced the event the previous week it was quite pleasing to see about 40 turning up for all or part of the evening. As I hope the pictures show the venue – the terrace of the National Liberal Club – was superb and the food was really excellent. This was the first time that we had had a sit-down element for the meal and this worked well. The informality of a barbecue meant…

Read More Read More

Should men be careful before commenting on this?

Should men be careful before commenting on this?

Has the Culture secretary touched a raw nerve over Shami? The most striking thing about the Burnham-Davis-Shami Chakrabarti row is that it has opened up what appears to be a massive gender divide. Women seem to be judging the culture secretary’s comments much more severely than men and it appears to have struck a real chord with many of them. This has become an area of debate into which male politicians and commentators should enter only at their peril. Leaving…

Read More Read More

Voters give Labour’s H&H decision the thumbs down

Voters give Labour’s H&H decision the thumbs down

YouGov finds strong public backing Davis to face a Labour challenge The above is an extract from a YouGov poll carried out for ConHome which sought to test opinion on whether Labour should put up a challenge in Haltemprice & Howden where the former Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, is fighting a by election over the 42 day detention issue. As can be seen those in the poll split 51% to 24% in favour of Labour putting up a candidate….

Read More Read More

Has MORI worked out why polls overstate Labour?

Has MORI worked out why polls overstate Labour?

Are too many public service workers included in samples? The overwhelming characteristic of British political opinion polling for decades has been the constant over-statement of Labour position in relation to the other parties. This came to a head at the London Mayoral election where the three phone pollsters were producing very different figures from the online firm, YouGov. To their great credit ICM and Ipsos-MORI did something about it. The former made some adjustments to its approach while the latter…

Read More Read More

What if Labour’s Henley vote drops to these levels?

What if Labour’s Henley vote drops to these levels?

Will a lost deposit be what next Thursday is remembered for? At the PB party last night I was repeatedly asked about Ladbrokes’s market on whether Labour will lose its deposit in the Henley by election next Thursday. The price has now tightened to 8/13 and even at that level I think it is a good bet. Over the years the Labour has been squeezed dramatically in by-elections that have been seen as a straight Conservative-Lib Dem fight. In 1993,…

Read More Read More

Continuation thread

Continuation thread

Please continue the thread here It has been party night for PBers in London and many are now on their way home. Our venue was the terrace of the National Liberal Club overlooking the Thames and just a block away from Big Ben. Mike Smithson

Does this add more pressure on Gordon?

Does this add more pressure on Gordon?

MORI: Half of 2005 Labour voters “less likely to do it again” A new poll by Ipsos-MORI sponsored by the Unison trade union has more bad news for Gordon as he prepares to celebrate his first year in Downing Street. No voting intention figures were included in the survey all though interviewees were asked if they voted Labour in 2005. In its commentary the pollster says: “Ipsos MORI’s survey for UNISON, shows that almost half (47%) of those who have…

Read More Read More