The money goes on a poor Henley performance

Given that this is the final Sunday before the Henley by election the only active market on Thursday’s outcome has been on whether Labour will lose its deposit. The chart shows the betting odds expressed as an implied probability.

The day started with the price at 1/2, then the market was suspended only to be re-opened an hour or so later at 2/5 and then to tighten further to 1/3 by the end of the afternoon.

The main Henley winner market has hardly moved.

So if punters have got this right then Gordon first anniversary at Number 10 next Friday will start with a lost deposit – meaning that the party’s vote share will fall below 5%. This would involve a massive drop on the 14.5% that was achieved at the 2005 general election.

There have been no polls at Henley and the market is being driven by experience of what has happened in other Tory-LD by-election contests over the years. The smallest Labour share was at Winchester in 1997 when it dropped to 1.7%.

Mike Smithson