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Month: May 2008

C&N: what were you saying five weeks ago?

C&N: what were you saying five weeks ago?

Recapping the first by-election thread? While the inquest on Crewe and Nantwich continues it is perhaps worth looking back to what people were saying about the by-election on Friday April 18th when news of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s death became known. The thread is here and to me the most striking feature was the way those of a known Tory allegiance were trying to dampen expectations. I probably overstated the Lib Dem prospects and one or two of the serious betting contributors…

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My General Election call: A Conservative majority

My General Election call: A Conservative majority

Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this – when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election? The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for…

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The spread markets suggest a Tory majority of 50

The spread markets suggest a Tory majority of 50

There’s been some movement on the spread markets over the past twenty four hours. These are the latest spreads from Spreadfair: CON 345.5-354: LAB 228.1-234.5: 45-46.9 So the mid-point Tory level is just under 350 which points to a majority of 48/50 seats. It will be interesting to see how the actual C&N result affects the markets. Mike Smithson

Will the June 27th punters get their reward tonight?

Will the June 27th punters get their reward tonight?

The PB 10/1 by-election gamble is looking very good Gordon’s smile says it all. Cast your mind back just eleven months to that euphoric day, June 27th 2007, when the Blair era ended and the Brown era began. Not long after the formalities the picture was taken outside Number 10 and during the following hour there was a huge buzz on PB. It started at 3.15 pm with this comment by Charlie – “some excellent new markets on hills ive…

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Can Hillary muscle her way onto the ticket?

Can Hillary muscle her way onto the ticket?

Is this why she is staying in the race? An interesting article by Roger Simon on the excellent Politico site assesses whether Hillary has the strength and the arguments to force her way onto the ticket to occupy the V-P slot. He writes:”…Her victories in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia and her strength with women and white working-class voters have fuelled the argument that Barack Obama must put her on the ticket if he wins the nomination…

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Will today be Gordon’s Eastbourne?

Will today be Gordon’s Eastbourne?

Could an appalling result start a chain reaction? On October 18th 1990 a by-election took place in the Sussex seaside resort of Eastbourne to fill the vacancy caused by the the death of Ian Gow, the previous MP and close friend of Margaret Thatcher who had been murdered by the Provisional IRA. The result, as seen above, was a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats. The result, reproduced from Wikipedia above, particularly in view of the circumstances of the by-election,…

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Paddy Power pays out on C&N

Paddy Power pays out on C&N

Are the bookies really taking a hammering? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has followed up its early payout on Boris in the London Mayoral election by repeating the exercise with the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich. In the former the money came after the polls had closed but before the count. With tomorrow’s by-election the polling stations have not even opened yet. This is good publicity stunt and shows the view of the betting community that a Tory victory tomorrow is…

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