Election night – the results continue….
Please help ease server pressure by using this thread to post comments as results come in. Double Carpet
Election night…. continued
Please help ease server pressure by using this new thread to post comments as results come in for the local elections. Double Carpet
When the markets got a result totally wrong
The Dunfermline by election: final price Labour 0.2/1 favourite It’s very easy, especially on election days, to believe that there is some mystical quality about betting prices. If changes are taking place you assume someone knows something and that you should be following yourself. Quite often price changes are based on very little and in the absence of a real reason for a move it’s usually wise to hold your nerve. There was no better example of the markets being…
Ken’s day – hour by hour on the markets
Mike Smithson
Site announcement
There has been an attempt to impersonate me and others on the previous thread. The person responsible has now been identified and has been banned. I am not aware of any exit polls tonight. Automated content moderation is now on – if you have not had a comment approved here before or if your details have changed then it will get held up in the spam trap. This was all the work of one person who was trying to influence…
Is the key to Mayoral result hidden here?
Was the postal vote battle the real decider? This table appears in the Evening Standard tonight and shows the number of postal votes issue in all but three of London’s boroughs. The total is 559,892 and I’ve just been doing some quick calculations to compare the number with a selection of the number of votes cast four years ago. For comparison I took the total first preferences from 2004 for Norris and Livingstone and then expressed this data as a…
PB’s YouGov figures are confirmed
The Evening Standard’s final YouGov poll of the mayoral campaign has just been published and the figures are exactly as was reported here at 9.27 pm last night. On first preferences it is BORIS 43%: KEN 36%: PADDICK 13%. After the redistribution of second preferences it splits BORIS 53%: KEN 47% From the poll detail it appears that there has been a hardening up of support by party allegiance. Two days ago 87% of those who have told the firm…
The money piles on Boris
But has YouGov got this one right? The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night – either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”. For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms – ICM, MRUK and…