The Dunfermline by election: final price Labour 0.2/1 favourite

It’s very easy, especially on election days, to believe that there is some mystical quality about betting prices. If changes are taking place you assume someone knows something and that you should be following yourself.

Quite often price changes are based on very little and in the absence of a real reason for a move it’s usually wise to hold your nerve.

There was no better example of the markets being wrong-footed than the Dunfermline by election in February 2006. As the returning officer got to his feet punters decided that it must be Labour. The price tightened to 0.2/1 seconds later the Lib Dem victory was announced.

London mayoral betting is here.

Mike Smithson