Is a Tory victory a near certainty? Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2. Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9. But is punter confidence in the Tories justified –…
Is it time to start using our White House race logo? With Obama’s decisive victory in North Carolina and Hillary’s victory in Indiana being by a fraction it’s starting to look as though the marathon fight for the Democratic nomination is nearing its end. As Obama spinners were saying overnight – they are now just 200 delegates from clinching it. Add onto that the reports that she has had to make a further big loan to her campaign and you…
        Will this be over before the Convention in Denver? If the Superdelegates are reluctant to  finish this race before the final states, Montana and South Dakota, have their say on June 3rd, then it seems likely that Clinton has almost another month in this race. She will almost certainly lose on pledged delegates and is unlikely to win the popular vote either, but is refusing to step aside. Many have speculated that the Superdelegates are disinclined to side with one party…
Indiana – 44% counted – Clinton leads 56-44 North Carolina – called for Obama, leads 64-34, 11% counted
Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey – CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc). So yet another poll is showing the Tories in the 40s with Labour in the 20s. This, I think, is Labour’s worst ever deficit from Populus. The fieldwork took…
Mayor Competition Results – how did you do? Congratulations to Andy Cooke, one of pb’s leading analysts and number-crunchers, on a clear victory in the PB London Mayor prediction competition. Andy’s overall score was just 5.07 and he also had the best first preference score of 4.59. Richard Stoneman was runner-up with a score of 6.87 while Dave Hague took third with 7.39. Fourth-placed Jack Peterson on 7.71 had the best final vote predictions, being just 0.12 away from the…
What do you think of the recent market moves? I have just three positions on the Democratic race. One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way. Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination Three bets on her at an average of 6/1 that she will get the V-P slot. The closer this gets to the convention the greater the chance she has of making…
Some depressing words for Labour supporters in Polly Toynbee’s Tuesday Guardian column this morning. After having this to say about May 22nd “..for the Conservatives are no longer the stupid party. Watch them win the Crewe and Nantwich byelection, easy…” she goes on:- “…It is Labour that has become the stupid party – dumb, directionless, depressing. That’s why the voters gave them that 24% sucker punch: it wasn’t about ideology, it was about basic political competence. As the Conservatives unfurl…