The PB 10/1 by-election gamble is looking very good

Gordon’s smile says it all.

Cast your mind back just eleven months to that euphoric day, June 27th 2007, when the Blair era ended and the Brown era began. Not long after the formalities the picture was taken outside Number 10 and during the following hour there was a huge buzz on PB.

It started at 3.15 pm with this comment by Charlie – “some excellent new markets on hills ive just noticed…if you think its likely that labour will lose one of the upcoming by-elections you can get a rather fantastic 10/1..”

In fact the bet was better than that and it wasn’t restricted to the Sedgefield and Ealing by elections which were scheduled for July. The market was on what would happen first from a list of things during Gordon Brown’s premiership. The options included a “general election“, “A full UK withdrawal from Iraq”, “Gordon and Sarah having another child”, “Labour losing a by election” and Gordon’s local club, “Raith Rovers winning promotion”.

Those who acted quickly got the by-election option at 10/1 because within hours the price tightened to 5/1 and then to 3/1.

Once Gordon pulled back from a November 2007 generally election the only event that would stop the bet was the football one. And then, oh agony, Raith Rovers made it to the play-offs for promotion from the Scottish Second Division. Thankfully they failed.

So now everything is clear for Crewe and Nantwich and if Labour loses a lot of us are going to pick up nice wedges of cash.

Mike Smithson