…or have the punters got this one right?

There were suggestions yesterday that Labour “private polling” was showing that the by election may not be the foregone conclusion that it appears. I am always suspicious of anything that party machines allow to be leaked – if they have such data then let the party publish it as was done in the London Mayoral race last February.

If this is more than just spin to boost the morale of the troops then that would surely trickle out and the betting would move. The chart showing the implied probability of a Labour victory based on the odds points to a Labour boost overnight Wednesday/Thursday but since then it has moved back down again. The timing is in line with the “private poll” rumour.

So with Gordon Brown’s “relaunch” and media blitz not getting the favourable coverage that Number 10 must have been hoping for it’s hard to see any other game-changing development.

This weekend all the parties will be throwing everything at the seat and, in the past, the Lib Dems have been able to create late surges in by elections. Can the they do that again to upset the Tory tide?

If you are campaigning there then please send us your reports. Every little bit of information helps.

By election betting.

Mike Smithson