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Month: March 2008

Will the battle of these forms have saved Hillary?

Will the battle of these forms have saved Hillary?

Who’s won the lion’s share of Pennsylvania’s newly registered Dems? Since New Year’s Day 218,000 residents of Pennsylvania have filled in forms like the one reproduced above so that they will be eligible to vote in the crucial primary that takes place there on April 22nd. More than 120,000 of them are new voters while a further 86,000 others were existing voters who filled in Question 9 to register as Democrats. In addition 12,000 switched to become registered Republicans. All…

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Could the Bayh plan screw Barack?

Could the Bayh plan screw Barack?

Creating a measure that puts Hillary ahead With Team Clinton desperately trying to get a foothold to further their argument with the super-delegates an ingenious plan has been put forward by one of Hillary’s key backers, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana. His idea is simple – that “the super-delegates consider the electoral votes of the states that each of them has won.” He argued: “So who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to…

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Will Labour rue the day it brought Ken back in?

Will Labour rue the day it brought Ken back in?

Would an independent loss to the Tories be a lot less damaging? Four and a half years ago Tony Blair went to extraordinary lengths to ensure that Labour would have a big result to shout about in what were to be the final national elections before the 2005 general election. He desperately wanted a victory for his party and the London Mayoral winner of four years earlier, Ken Livingstone, was brought back into the fold. In 2000, of course, he…

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How much trouble is Gord in over the embryo bill?

How much trouble is Gord in over the embryo bill?

What could the row mean for his future in the job? The issue that’s dominating the UK political news this Easter is the threatened revolt by Labour MPs, including ministers, over the the Embryo bill that would allow the creation of part-human, part-animal embryos for research. According to the Observer three Cabinet minsters – Ruth Kelly, Des Browne and Paul Murphy – are “struggling to accept” parts of the bill’s provisions while there are some reports suggesting that upto twelve…

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Is Obama now over the worst?

Is Obama now over the worst?

The latest Gallup daily tracker showing the trend in the race for the Democratic nomination, just out, has that the front-runner and odds-on favourite, Barack Obama, is back in the lead following a difficult week when the news had been dominated by Pastor Wright. This is important because the key battle in the coming days and weeks is going to be convincing the super-delegates that his relationship with his pastor does not make him an electoral liability. A big development…

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The week that punters turned to Boris

The week that punters turned to Boris

But should you be making a 75/1 insurance bet on Paddick? The chart, using betting prices expressed as implied probabilities, shows the dramatic changes there have been in the London Mayoral race betting over the past week. Last Saturday the Labour incumbent, Ken Livingstone, was the marginal odds-on favourite with his Tory challenger, Boris Johnson, not far behind. Then the came the national general election polls showing a huge move to the Tories in the aftermath of the budget. This…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

A preview of 2008’s Local Elections (Part I) Most of the interest on May 1st will focus on the London Mayoralty. Elsewhere, however, there are important local elections taking place. All 36 Metropolitan Boroughs will see one third of their councillors elected. The 22 Welsh Unitary authorities will see all of their councillors come up for election. 4 District councils will have all-out elections, 5 will elect half their councillors, and 71 will elect one third. There are also elections…

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The Democratic race – where are we?

The Democratic race – where are we?

As the chart, showing the Clinton-Obama fight in terms of the implied probabilities of odds on UK betting markets, illustrates the events of the past week have had an impact but not that much. A number of visitors have expressed surprise at my continuing view that Hillary is still in with a shout even though the pledged delegate totals are against her. Perhaps the best articulation of my nagging doubts about Obama’s chances comes from the US blogger who, for…

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