Could the Bayh plan screw Barack?

Could the Bayh plan screw Barack?


    Creating a measure that puts Hillary ahead

With Team Clinton desperately trying to get a foothold to further their argument with the super-delegates an ingenious plan has been put forward by one of Hillary’s key backers, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana.

His idea is simple – that “the super-delegates consider the electoral votes of the states that each of them has won.”

He argued: “So who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that’s how we choose the president of the United States.”

Clinton supporters like this because unlike the pledge delegate count, the popular vote or number of states won this is one measure where Hillary comes out on top.

The reason this works for Hillary is that it gets round the rigid proportional nature of delegate numbers to replace it with a winner takes all system. Clinton has done better in the bigger states but in most cases her margins have been relatively small so her delegate gains have been kept down by Obama.

    This is not about re-writing the rules but providing arguments for the super-delegates to enable them to go in one direction. It acts as a counter to the strong Obama case that on all the other measures he is ahead.

Bayh himself is a charismatic and influential player and was being topped strongly a couple of years ago as a possible nominee. Clearly it is in his interest for Hillary to get it so he could follow her.

And the betting? I still don’t rule Clinton out and am maintaining positions on both Betfair and the spread markets.

Mike Smithson

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