This could be about the narrative – not the numbers

Firstly can I make clear that the last post was by my son Robert and not me – as some on the thread suggested. I have not changed my mind from Wednesday and believe that in spite of the apparent mathematical disadvantage that Hillary might just still do it.

A good test of US opinion is the Iowa Electronic Market – an institution that was set up by the state university there as an academic exercise and where US citizens can legitimately trade in “political futures”. The overnight prices had the prospect of her winning the nomination at a level which suggested a probability of about 29%. I rate her chances at about 25%.

I think that Nick Palmer MP summed this up brilliantly in a comment on the previous thread: “If she does win I don’t think it will be the precise arithmetic, though, but momentum. If she wins a smashing victory in PA and then wins IN, NC and WV on the trot, I think it’ll be hard for the Obama camp to tell the superdelegates that hey, you gotta go for us, we got all those votes back in January. I think we’re all sort of subconsciously assuming that the national race will stay pretty much as it is, but the pendulum has swung a lot in the last week and it’s possible it will just keep going. But I wouldn’t put it higher than a 20-25% chance.”

As for my personal betting I am in a great position thanks to getting on Obama for the Presidency in 2005 and 2006 at 50/1 and 33/1. I can take fairly big risks on Hillary and still be certain of coming out of this exercise with several thousand pounds. I’ve got a pocket of cash ready to put on Clinton when the price is right.

Latest Democratic nomination betting is here.

Mike Smithson